FSU Basketball Looking to Play Spoiler For No. 1 Duke Blue Devils in ACC Tournament

Florida State extended its season another game after downing the Cal Golden Bears on Wednesday night in a much more dominant fashion than the final score indicated. But now, they'll try to beat the best team in the country.

If there was any time to play the Duke Blue Devils, this may be it. FSU took them to the wire in early January when the Seminoles weren't even playing their best basketball, but they played a great game that day. Duke is down two starters, and yet, they opened this as a nearly 20-point favorite. Florida State is hot. Can they pull off the massive upset?

This game will be at 7 p.m. EST on ESPN from the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Mar 7, 2026; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) controls the ball during the second half against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Duke Blue Devils won 76-61. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

#1 Duke Blue Devils Breakdown (29-2 Overall, 19-1 ACC)

Duke is undoubtedly the best team in the country. Cameron Boozer is likely going to be the National Player of the Year, and given that he's averaging 22.7 PPG, 10.7 RPG, and 4.1 APG, all of which lead Duke, it makes sense.

And they surrounded Boozer with a lot of talent. Isaiah Evans can be a flamethrower offensively and may be a first-round pick in a few months. Maliq Brown just won ACC Defensive Player of the Year despite coming off the bench most of the season. Cayden Boozer has blossomed into an extremely versatile force. Dame Sarr just had 16 points and 9 rebounds against NC State last week.

However, Duke is going to be down two starters in this game: point guard Caleb Foster and center Patrick Ngongba. Foster will likely miss the rest of the season after fracturing his foot, while Ngongba is dealing with soreness in his foot. Those are two massive losses.

Foster was averaging 8.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG, and 2.8 APG while shooting a steady 40.2% from three. He was a steadying force in the lineup, and it'll be a big loss without him. Ngongba is an even bigger loss, averaging 10.7 PPG and 6.0 RPG, while easily being the team's best shot-blocker. While Maliq Brown is a more versatile defender, Ngongba is a difference-maker around the rim, and it's going to be a different game without him.

Missing Ngongba didn't matter against UNC, as Maliq Brown put up a quality 15 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 steals. More than anything, missing two starters will impact their depth, and this will likely be just a 6-man rotation with some spot minutes from Darren Harris and Niklas Khamenia.

Since beating Florida State 91-87 in Tallahassee in early January, Duke has just torn through the ACC. In fact, that game is the closest anyone has come to beating the Blue Devils in conference play outside of their loss in the Dean Dome to UNC. That's closer than even Michigan played them. Duke will remember that, but FSU remembers that loss even more. This is the best defensive team in the country, and that comes from a mindset and scheme more than anything.

Mar 11, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Florida State Seminoles guard Robert McCray V. (6) brings the ball up court during the first half against the California Golden Bears at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

#8 Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (18-14 Overall, 11-8 ACC)

The final score may have said that FSU only won by 6, but they throttled Cal on Wednesday night using a 23-3 run in the middle of the first half. If they could've just made some free throws down the stretch, this would've remained a rout.

Robert McCray V was electric, putting up 30 points, 8 assists, and 5 rebounds. He got help from Chauncey Wiggins, Kobe MaGee, and Lajae Jones, but McCray was the driving force.

This team is playing a completely different style than when they last played Duke, and they're entering this game with a lot of momentum. FSU still needs to be a lot better at closing games, and that's going to matter against a team like Duke, but they have to get to that point first. Late-game free-throw shooting remains a struggle, as do press break situations, and they'll have to be nearly perfect to beat a team like Duke.

It was 7 years ago that I was in this same building as a manager at Florida State for my senior season, watching FSU lose in the ACC championship to Duke. FSU has played extremely well away from home, and they were one of the few teams to give Duke a game this year. They can absolutely make this a game.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Robert McCray V
G: Lajae Jones
F: Thomas Bassong
F: Chauncey Wiggins
F: Alex Steen

Duke

G: Dame Sarr
G: Cayden Boozer
G: Isaiah Evans
F: Cameron Boozer
F: Maliq Brown

3 Keys to the Game

Is Cameron Boozer Containable?

Cameron Boozer's "worst" game of the year would be a lot of people's best; his worst performance by game score was his season-opener against Texas, where he still had 15 points and 12 rebounds. With Patrick Ngongba out, there will be more emphasis on Boozer's rebounding, even if Maliq Brown is more than capable. FSU's defense has been the biggest reason for its turnaround, but this will be the biggest challenge since making all of the changes.

No Patrick Ngongba Could Mean a More Versatile Defense

Patrick Ngongba is a great rebounder and rim protector, with his offensive rebounding prowess being a difference-maker. However, with Maliq Brown in the lineup, they could be a little more versatile, as Brown can handle himself against a lot of different types of players. They've already been the best defense in the country. If FSU can get to the basket, they have more success finishing, but it may be a little harder to get into gaps on drives. FSU needs to find a way to drive.

Robert McCray V Picking Up Where He Left Off

Robert McCray V was electric on Wednesday night with 30 points and 8 assists, but they'll need him to be efficient against Duke. He's their best threat to drive inside and get to the basket to kick out to shooters, but he'll need to finish at the rim. In the first game between these teams, he had 22 points and 5 assists, but he also had 5 turnovers. For the 'Noles to have a chance, he likely needs to have 2 or fewer turnovers.

Game Prediction

Duke is favored by 18.5 points with an over/under of 153.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

Florida State is playing its best basketball, and Duke is down two starters. For the line to be nearly 20 is a little wild, but that's how good Duke has been all season. I absolutely believe FSU can win this game, but they're going to need to play nearly perfectly. I do expect it to be competitive, though.

Duke 78, Florida State 71

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