FSU Basketball Opens Home Stand Against Two-Time Reigning Conference Champion Troy

Florida State opened the season with a dominant 113-69 win over Florida A&M in Tampa, and they'll now start a stretch of six straight games at home. They won't even leave the Panhandle for the rest of the month, as their last game in November will be against West Florida in Pensacola.

Friday's game will be against the Troy Trojans, which should be a slight uptick in competition from Monday's game against FAMU, but it'll be a completely different challenge than what they'll face on Tuesday against Florida.

Still, the last time these two teams played, Troy actually won in the Tucker Center, 79-72, in the disastrous 2022-23 season. Hopefully, this game is nothing like that one.

Florida State will face Troy at 7 p.m. EST on ACCNX in the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, FL.

Troy Trojans Breakdown (0-1 Overall)

Troy is in its first season under head coach Adam Howard, who stepped in after being an assistant at NC State last season and at Nebraska for a few years before that. The previous coach, Scott Cross, led Troy to the NCAA Tournament in each of the last two years while winning the Sun Belt regular-season and tournament championships, winning 22+ games each season, before taking the job with Georgia Tech this offseason.

At first glance, this isn't nearly as talented a team as last year's roster, as they lost leading scorer Victor Valdes (Georgia Tech), second-leading scorer Thomas Dowd (Auburn), third-leading scorer Theo Seng (graduated), fourth-leading scorer Cooper Campbell (Liberty), fifth-leading scorer Cobi Campbell (Liberty), and sixth-leading scorer Jerrell Bellamy (graduated).

Replacing that talent is a lot of transfers on the perimeter. Donovan Oday averaged 18.6 PPG at Northern Kentucky last season (has made stops at McNeese and Cal State Fullerton, too) and had 21 points and 12 rebounds in Troy's season-opening loss (more on this later). He took eight threes in that season opener.

Not done yet... @OdayDonovan pic.twitter.com/cgX0Pi2LpU
— Troy Trojans MBB (@TroyTrojansMBB) November 3, 2026

Jacoi Hutchinson started his career at George Washington before becoming a 12.3 PPG scorer at Longwood last season. He was a good shooter as a freshman but has been below 26% each of the last two seasons, so he can be a wild card.

Mobi Ikegwuruka was a reserve at Kansas State last year after a standout JUCO career at Ellsworth Community College. He's going to operate exclusively in the paint despite being 6'6".

Robert Davis Jr. had a great sophomore season at Old Dominion, averaging 15.6 PPG, but he fell off last season to 9.6 PPG and went scoreless in their season opener. He's always been a great shot taker, but never the best shot maker.

Kerrington Kiel got the starting nod in their last game after being a reserve at Troy for the last few years, but he's a 6'5" forward. All five starters from their last game are between 6'2" and 6'6". They like their five-out lineups, but they don't really have the proven three-point ability to make it work consistently right now.

They do have a little more size off the bench. Caden Diggs (6'8", 215 pounds) averaged 10 and 4 at UMBC last season. Sam Walters (6'9", 215 pounds) is a former four-star recruit who started his career at Alabama, but he has yet to find any traction at any of his stops, which now include SMU and Michigan. Evan Griffin (6'9", 235 pounds) is their biggest player, but he's never been that impactful in his career. That could be a big mismatch for Florida State's Marcis Ponder.

Brazilian freshman guard Caua Pacheco had 8 points in their debut.

As mentioned, Troy lost their season-opener, a home game against UMass. They shot a dreadful 22/64 (34.4%) from the field and 7/28 (25%) from three. The Trojans started the game strong, getting out to an early 18-8 lead. They were still leading 27-21 with six minutes left in the half, then scored just one point for the next 10 minutes of action.

They just don't have a lot of playmaking, natural shooting, or size. That will make it tough to compete in a game like this. I would expect them to try to match FSU's size a little more initially.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (1-0 Overall)

I was really impressed with Florida State in the first game against Florida A&M. I get that it's Florida A&M (who lost to Division II Fort Valley State on Thursday), but FSU was just superb defensively before letting their foot off the gas for the last 10 minutes or so. And even though they got off to a slow start offensively, they kept attacking the basket and getting to the free-throw line.

There really isn't anything to complain about. Even Shon Abaev, who struggled to score, was great as a playmaker with 6 assists and no turnovers. The freshmen were great off the bench. Marcis Ponder established himself in the middle. Anthony Robinson II and Sebastian Rancik were incredibly effective after sluggish preseason performances.

It was exactly what you would want to see in a game against a mismatched opponent like FAMU. The small concerns that I had entering the season were never going to be answered in that game, but they played as well as you could hope for.

Sebastian’s got a 🆕 career high with 25 points! 🏀🍢#ALLIN🍢 pic.twitter.com/GMEi13joqZ
— Florida State Men’s Basketball (@FSUHoops) November 3, 2026

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Anthony Robinson II
G: Kameron Taylor
F: Shon Abaev
F: Sebastian Rancik
C: Marcis Ponder

G: Donovan Oday
G: Jacoi Hutchinson
G: Robert Davis Jr.
F: Kerrington Kiel
F: Mobi Ikegwuruka

3 Keys to Game

Dominate the Glass

Florida State has a massive size advantage in this game. Even if I expect Troy to play their bigger forwards a little more in this game, they are skilled or physical enough to last with Marcis Ponder, Sebastian Rancik, Alex Steen, and Cooper Schwieger.

I'd expect FSU to win the rebounding battle by at least 20 and to get a lot of second-chance points.

FSU's Defensive Success Against a 5-Out Offense

Although Troy isn't that strong of a three-point shooting team, they have enough people who can attack off the dribble, especially in a five-out situation, to create good looks for others. It'll be interesting to see if Marcis Ponder is able to keep up defensively, or if they feel more comfortable with Alex Steen down low.

I expect a healthy mix of zone from FSU just to keep them from getting too turned around in man.

More Efficient Shon Abaev

Shon Abaev is the biggest key to this season, and with a big game coming up next week against Florida, you want Abaev to feel confident heading into it.

His playmaking was great on Monday night, but he missed some easy looks at the rim that you'd expect him to convert. I think there will be an extra effort to get him going early in this game.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 21.5 points with an over/under of 158.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

I don't think Troy is nearly as talented as they've been in years past, and Florida State has a massive size advantage. Maybe it's just me wanting to make up for the last time these two teams played, but I think FSU runs away with this game.

Florida State 95, Troy 61

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