New Mexico State vs. Florida State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 0

Florida State is a big favorite against New Mexico State on Saturday. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Florida State is coming off back-to-back disappointing seasons, going 2-10 in 2024 and 5-7 last year. Mike Norvell is back as their head coach for another season, and they're hoping to take advantage of a relatively weak ACC this season. Unfortunately, they're listed at +4000 to win the conference this season.

The good news is they're set as massive favorites in Week 1 when they take on New Mexico State. The Aggies have gone a combined 7-17 in the Tony Sanchez era.

Both teams are looking to get their 2026 campaign started on the right foot, but it's the Seminoles that are set as huge favorites. Let's take a look.

New Mexico State vs. Florida State Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Spread

• New Mexico State +31.5 (-113)
• Florida State -31.5 (-107)

Moneyline

• New Mexico State +1800
• Florida State -10000

Total

• OVER 53.5 (-107)
• UNDER 53.5 (-114)

New Mexico State vs. Florida State How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, August 29
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: Doak Campbell Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CW
• New Mexico State record: 0-0
• Florida State record: 0-0

New Mexico State vs. Florida State Betting Trends

• New Mexico State is 5-5 against the spread in its last 10 games
• The OVER is 5-5 in New Mexico State's last 10 games
• Florida State is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
• The UNDER is 6-4 in Florida State's last 10 games

New Mexico State vs. Florida State Key Player to Watch

• Duce Robinson, WR - Florida State Seminoles

There is no doubt that the player to watch on Florida State this season is wide receiver Duce Robinson. He's currently projected as a Day 2 or Day 3 selection in next year's NFL Draft, but his stock could rise with a strong 2026 campaign. He finished ninth in the country in receiving yards last season, finishing with 1,081. If Florida State is able to contend in the ACC, he's going to play a big role in it.

New Mexico State vs. Florida State Prediction and Pick

I think Florida State is being relatively underrated this season. Their success is going to come down to how their new quarterback, Ashton Daniels, the Auburn transfer, performs. He'll get plenty of help with Duce Robinson at wide receiver, a player that New Mexico State isn't going to be able to cover in this Week 0 game.

The Seminoles ranked 17th in the country in net adjusted EPA per play this season. On the other hand, New Mexico State ranked 117th in that metric.

I'll bet on Florida State to win and cover this massive spread.

Pick: Florida State -31.5 (-107) via Caesars

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