Surging FSU Basketball Travels to Face Stumbling Clemson Tigers

Florida State has been one of the better teams in the ACC recently, winning 5 of the last 6 games, helping them climb out of the cellar of the ACC. If the season ended now, they'd have a first-round bye in the ACC Tournament as the 9 seed.

They'll carry that momentum into Saturday's game against the Clemson Tigers. A few weeks ago, they were the 18th-ranked team in the AP poll, but they've lost three straight games. That could force them into desperation mode this weekend as they look to hang on to a double bye in the ACC Tournament.

Can Florida State win at Clemson for the first time since 2019 and continue its hot streak? Or is Clemson going to bounce back and finally get back on track? We'll find out starting at noon on the CW Network from the Littlejohn Coliseum in Clemson, South Carolina.

Feb 18, 2026; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; Clemson Tigers head coach Brad Brownell reacts to a call during the first half against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Clemson Tigers Breakdown (20-7 Overall, 10-4 ACC)

Clemson is in its 16th season under Brad Brownell. He's made the NCAA Tournament just 5 times in his tenure, and he made it back-to-back years for the first time last season. They looked well on their way to making another NCAA Tournament run a few weeks ago when they were ranked in the top 20, but they've now lost three straight games to Virginia Tech, Duke, and Wake Forest.

Their NET rankings have only stumbled slightly, going from 26th to 34th in the last few weeks, but a home loss to Florida State, which is currently a Q3 game, would really wreck their resume. No team has been better at wrecking resumes recently than FSU, either, as they possibly ended Cal's and Virginia Tech's chances in the last few weeks.

Clemson's defense has been superb for most of the season, only allowing 65.4 PPG while holding teams to 41% from the floor and 31.1% from three. They make opposing offenses play 1-on-1, as the assist rate they allow of 46.3% is one of the better marks nationally, and the 10.8 APG they allow is 8th-best. Clemson also just grinds possessions out on defense. Their defensive possessions last around 19 seconds, which is very long. FSU used to want to play fast, but they've slowed things down a little.

A big reason they've lost the last three games is that the defense has started to falter. Wake Forest scored 85 points, while Virginia Tech scored 76. They were swinging the ball around to open shooters, and they were hitting the shots. Florida State will have to follow a similar formula.

This is a deep team without a go-to scorer. They have eight players averaging between 6.0 PPG and 11.4 PPG. RJ Godfrey is their leading scorer, which is a little wild considering how his career has gone. He started out at Clemson for two years but didn't see much playing time. He transferred to Georgia last year and still didn't make much of an impact before coming back to Clemson this year, and he's had a breakout year. He does not shoot from the perimeter, which can make the spacing clunky on offense for them.

Feb 18, 2026; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; Clemson Tigers forward RJ Godfrey (0) reacts to a call during the second half against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

His frontcourt mate, Carter Welling, is second in scoring at 10.6 PPG and 5.7 RPG. He was a solid player for Utah Valley last year, and despite the jump in competition, his numbers have only taken a slight dip. His shot blocking is the only thing that has taken a noticeable hit, but he's been more efficient around the rim. He does have the ability to space out to three, but he's only hitting 25.5% of them.

Middle Tennessee transfer Jestin Porter is their biggest threat from the perimeter, averaging 9.9 PPG. 60% of his shots are coming from three, and he shoots more threes on this team than anyone. He's only making them at a 33.3% rate, but he still has to be respected as a shooter. He is also a thief on the perimeter, averaging nearly 2 steals per game in conference play.

Nevada transfer Nick Davidson has given them a big scoring punch off the bench in the frontcourt, averaging 9.5 PPG and 4.0 RPG. He can space out to three as well. This kind of strength in the frontcourt could be a mismatch against a weak FSU frontcourt, but they were able to hold up against Virginia.

Ace Buckner is their greatest slasher from the perimeter, averaging 8.0 PPG. He has started to find a groove from three recently. Of the 19 three-pointers he's hit this season, 16 have been since the start of January, and he's shooting 41.2% from deep in ACC play. When he has the three-point shot rolling, he can be a tough player to guard.

Dillon Hunter, the brother of former Clemson standout Chase Hunter, has taken over the starting guard responsibilities, averaging 7.5 PPG and 3.0 APG. He's taking just about 6 shots per game, but he's done a good job of keeping turnovers down, and at nearly 6'4", he has good size to guard multiple positions.

Jake Wahlin also starts in the frontcourt to give them some more spacing, as he shoots 38% from three at 6'10" while averaging 6.1 PPG. The majority of his shots come from behind the arc.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (13-13 Overall, 6-7 ACC)

Florida State started ACC play 0-5, and once they lost to Wake Forest, things looked dire. And given how non-conference play went, it would've been understandable if the team called it in. They've done anything but, rattling off 6 wins in the last eight games, and the two losses have both been by one possession to SMU and Virginia, two of the better teams in the conference.

Tuesday's win over Boston College was a wild one. The Eagles came out red hot on offense, which is not something they do ever. But FSU rallied back in the second half behind a strong effort from Robert McCray V, who was able to get to the basket and the free-throw line. There were other big contributions elsewhere, but McCray was the driving force, as was Martin Somerville against Virginia Tech last weekend.

However, it's fair to say FSU got a little lucky. Despite attempting 35 free throws, they missed fewer than Boston College, which attempted only 13. And FSU missed 8 free throws, but Boston College couldn't hit the broadside of a barn from the charity stripe. Oddly enough, it's the second time this decade that Boston College has lost a game while making 10+ threes on a rate of at least 45%, while making 3 or fewer free throws and shooting less than 25% at the stripe. They are the only power conference team to do that twice in the last 22 years. It's an impressive way to lose.

This game will be a little bit of revenge for Chauncey Wiggins, who spent the first three years of his career at Clemson. His role never really developed despite starting 44 games in three years, and he averaged just 8.3 PPG his junior year. His role has expanded in Tallahassee, and he's averaging 12.6 PPG this year. He's played some great basketball recently, putting up a career high 23 points in the win over Stanford on January 31st, and followed that up with 22 points on the road against Notre Dame.

Wiggins has had some underwhelming performances here and there, but he's mostly played pretty well in the last few weeks. How he performs against his former team will go a long way to deciding who wins this game.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Robert McCray V
G: Lajae Jones
F: Thomas Bassong
F: Chauncey Wiggins
F: Alex Steen

Clemson

G: Dillon Hunter
G: Jestin Porter
F: Jack Wahlin
F: RJ Godfrey
C: Carter Welling

3 Keys to the Game

Ball Movement

Clemson's defense can be really good, and part of that is its ability to limit passing from its opponents. They force a lot of 1-on-1 isolation, which can fit into something Robert McCray V can sink or swim with. However, if he forces the defense to collapse to kick out to open shooters, that's the world FSU wants to live in.

In games where Clemson has allowed 12 assists or more, they hold a record of 3-7. Two of those wins were a closer-than-needed contest over Stanford and in overtime against Georgia. Ball movement is going to be the biggest key in this game. Limit the turnovers, find open shots around the floor.

Efficient Three-Point Shooting

A big reason why Clemson has lost three straight is because they let Virginia Tech and Wake Forest light them up from three. The Hokies went 11/21 while Wake was 10/22. Those are the two highest percentages Clemson has allowed from deep all season by a healthy margin.

Florida State probably has to make 10 three-pointers in this game, as Clemson is 1-4 in games where its opponent makes at least that many. If FSU can go around 11/25 from deep in this game, I think that would put them on a good path to get a win.

Limit Clemson's Bench

Clemson is a deep team without a go-to option. They have five players scoring between 8.0 PPG and 11.4, and that can make them tricky to prepare for. Two of their top options come off the bench: Nick Davidson and Ace Buckner. They lost on the road to Wake Forest in large part because it took a long time for the bench to show up. The more limited their bench can be, the better FSU's chances are of winning.

Game Prediction

Clemson is favored by 9.5 points, with an over/under of 143.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

This is one of the more surprising lines of the year. Florida State has played great on the road recently, and just played well in general over the last month. Meanwhile, Clemson has lost three straight games. They are due to bounce back at some point, and with the next two games being against Louisville and UNC, they need this game. FSU also hasn't won at Clemson since 2019, riding a six-game losing streak.

But I like FSU's chances to at least keep this game close. They've found a defensive formula that works for them, and that will keep them in a lot of games. Clemson gets back on track, but FSU gives them a tough test.

Clemson 68, Florida State 67

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