Clemson vs. Duke Prediction, Odds for College Basketball on Saturday, Feb. 14

The biggest game in the early-afternoon slate of Saturday's college basketball action is a showdown between the No. 20-ranked Clemson Tigers and the No. 4-ranked Duke Blue Devils.

Duke has a one game lead in the ACC, while both Clemson and Virginia sit one game behind them. That means Clemson can draw even with Duke with a victory on Saturday.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this matinee matchup.

Clemson vs. Duke Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Clemson +12.5 (-115)
Duke -12.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Clemson +660
Duke -1050

Total

OVER 133.5 (-110)
UNDER 133.5 (-110)

Clemson vs. Duke How to Watch

Date: Saturday, February 14
Game Time: Noon ET
Venue: Kohl Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Clemson Record: 20-5 (10-2 in ACC)
Duke Record: 22-2 (11-1 in ACC)

Clemson vs. Duke Betting Trends

Clemson is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games
The UNDER is 4-1 in Clemson's last five games
Clemson is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. Duke
Clemson has lost 20 straight games on the road against Duke
The UNDER is 5-0 in Duke's last five games
Duke is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games played on a Saturday

Clemson vs. Duke Key Player to Watch

Cameron Boozer, F - Duke Blue Devils

We still have a month left of the regular season, but Cameron Boozer is already an overwhelming favorite to win the Wooden Award as the nation's best player. He's leading Duke in points per game (23.0), rebounds per game (10.0), assists per game (4.0), and steals per game (1.8). If Clemson wants any chance of pulling off the upset, the Tigers need to find a way to slow Boozer down.

Clemson vs. Duke Prediction and Pick

There's no doubt that Duke is the better team, but their metrics, compared to Clemson's, are too close to justify this big spread. For example, Duke ranks 15th in effective field goal percentage and third in effective field goal percentage. By comparison, Clemson ranks 74th and 21st in those two respective categories.

Clemson's perimeter defense will also play a big role in this game, staying within reach. The Tigers rank 36th in opponent three-point field goal percentage, keeping teams to shooting just 30.4% from beyond the arc. That's important considering Duke ranks inside the top 100 in three-point shot rate.

Duke also has a slight turnover problem that may come back to haunt them when it comes to covering a big spread. The Blue Devils rank 138th in turnovers per possession, coughing it up on 15.9% of their possessions.

I'll take the points with the Tigers.

Pick: Clemson +12.5 (-115)

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