Mike Norvell Faces a Tenure-Defining Moment as FSU Football Hosts No. 19 SMU

To say Florida State's season-opening win against New Mexico State was lackluster would be putting it lightly. It was 17-10 late in the third quarter before FSU ended up winning 34-17, but the performance was far from encouraging.

Ashton Daniels was mediocre, the defense was horrific on third downs, and parts of the offensive line looked suspect. That's not a good recipe for success as Florida State welcomes the 19th-ranked SMU Mustangs to town.

SMU is 20-7 since entering the ACC with a playoff appearance in their first year. FSU is 8-17 in that same timeframe. SMU has had one of the best run defenses in the country over the last two years, while FSU wants to be a rushing offense mainly.

All things would point to SMU being a massive favorite, yet they're only favored by around 2.5 or 3.5, depending on the sportsbook you use.

It's only the second game of the season, but this game has massive implications for Mike Norvell's future with the program. Win this game, and fans can afford to be optimistic about the season for a few weeks. Lose this game, and fans will be counting down the days until Norvell is fired, because the schedule is pretty difficult until the bye week: at Alabama, vs. Central Arkansas, vs. Virginia, at Louisville, and at Miami.

A loss in this game, and FSU could be staring down a 2-5 record at the bye week.

Things haven't gone well for FSU on recent Labor Days, as this one will be played on. They lost to Tommy Castellanos and Boston College at home in the infamous 2024 season, 28-13, and then there was the even more infamous first game of the Willie Taggart era, where they got shellacked at home by Virginia Tech, 24-3. As if that game wasn't bad enough, I woke up the next day with a kidney stone, so here's hoping that doesn't repeat.

As strong as SMU has been recently, they have struggled slightly in September. Of their seven losses in the last two years, three have come in September to Baylor, TCU, and BYU. Only the TCU game was on the road, though.

With that being said, here are three things I'll be keeping an eye on in this game.

Florida State Seminoles quarterback Ashton Daniels (14) hands the ball off to running back Ousmane Kroma — Florida State Seminoles quarterback Ashton Daniels (14) hands the ball off to Florida State Seminoles running back Ousmane Kromah (32). The Florida State Seminoles defeated the New Mexico State Aggies 34-17 at Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday, Aug. 29, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

FSU's Strong Rushing Attack vs. SMU's Strong Rushing Defense

As much as rosters turn over year after year, SMU's rushing defense has been strong under Rhett Lashlee. In 2024, their first year in the ACC, they were 7th in rushing yards per game allowed (100.2 YPG) and 4th in yards per carry allowed (2.9 YPC). Last season, they took a slight step back but were still top 20 in both statistics (111.9 YPG allowed, 19th; 3.2 YPC allowed, 13th).

That's strength on strength for these teams, as Florida State had 230 rushing yards in their season opener against New Mexico State and didn't run with Ashton Daniels too often. Mike Norvell's offenses thrive with the running game, and if SMU is able to slow it down, that could cause real problems for the 'Noles.

SMU is replacing its entire front four from last year, though. They brought in Marques White from UMASS to play on the edge, who had 11 tackles for loss and two forced fumbles last season. Up the middle, they added Christian Davis from Louisiana Tech and Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder, who combined for 7 TFLs last year.

Safety Ahmaad Moses looks like he's returning; he's an NFL-caliber player. He declared for the NFL Draft in the spring, but a herniated disc left him undrafted. He had a workout with the Giants but never signed and was granted a fifth year to return to college. This isn't as outrageous as what's going on with LSU, but if he's fully healthy and eligible, he changes a lot for their defense.

Seeing if SMU can replicate their success against FSU's legitimately good rushing attack is going to be the biggest key in this game.

Can Ashton Daniels At Least Be Serviceable?

The rewatch of the FSU-NMSU game was not kind to Ashton Daniels. While his base numbers look fine (17/27, 202 yards, one passing touchdown, one rushing touchdown, one interception), he was not seeing the field well. There were two post routes that would've been touchdowns had he seen them, but he wasn't anticipating throws or seeing over the defense. That's the downside of having an average (at best) quarterback.

SMU's passing defense was horrific last year, allowing the second-most passing yards in the country. They did add Jayvon Thomas from Texas A&M, but he only recorded one tackle last year in 13 games. This isn't a secondary to be scared of, outside of Moses, assuming he plays.

However, pair Daniels with a bad pass-protecting offensive line, and that can pair badly. I wouldn't be surprised if Norvell used Daniels more with his legs to get him on the run and make some reads easier. Sitting him in the pocket is how this team ends up 3-9.

Jan 2, 2026; San Diego, CA, USA; SMU Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) throws the ball against the Arizona Wildcats in the first half during the Holiday Bowl at Snapdragon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Kevin Jennings on the Road

Kevin Jennings is a pretty good quarterback, one of the best in the ACC. He will have to break in new weapons around him, including ECU transfer Yannick Smith and a pair of transfer tight ends: Randy Pittman Jr. (Florida State) and Theo Melin Ohrstrom (Texas A&M).

However, Jennings was a little shaky on the road last year, completing just 58.9% of his passes (compared to 74.2% at home), throwing 11 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. As with a lot of quarterbacks, the key is getting him under pressure, something FSU looked suspect with last week.

FSU was generating some pressure last week, but New Mexico State was doing a great job of getting rid of the ball quickly. Had they held on for a touch longer, some pressure would've gotten home.

Jennings also has a good running back to rely on, as they got Kendrick Raphael out of the transfer portal from Cal, who had 952 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns last year. Still, FSU's defense is going to need to be much better than it was a week ago.

Game Prediction

This spread truly confuses me. It's one of those spreads where the only reason you'd take it is that you think Vegas knows something. I don't think Florida State is that good, and what we saw against New Mexico State basically confirmed that for me, even if it's just one week. It's college football, and anything can happen, though.

SMU has two All-ACC offensive linemen, and Florida State's defensive line is small. That concerns me. SMU has been great at stopping the run, and that's FSU's primary source of offense. That concerns me even more, even if I'm not that high on the players SMU brought in, and they have a new defensive coordinator.

On a neutral field, I'd have SMU winning by 20+. Maybe the home Labor Day magic makes this a little closer, but I still have the Mustangs by multiple scores.

SMU 31, Florida State 20

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