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SI Betting Mailbag: College Football Week 1 (Clemson, Transfer Portal, and Betting Big Spreads)
In this story:
Week 0 of the college football season was a perfect appetizer for what we have in store for us the next four months. With that now behind us, it's time to dive headfirst into the college football season, and then we'll have the NFL season waiting for us in just a few days.
Throughout the season, I'll be doing a weekly mailbag to answer YOUR questions about betting on both the NFL and this year's college football season.
You have two ways to submit questions each week:
- Send me (@IainMacBets) a DM on X or Instagram
- Send me an e-mail at iain@si.com
Each week, we'll choose a few questions to answer in an article.
This week, we're keying in on both Week 1 and the college football season as a whole. Let's dive into the questions.
College Football Week 1 Mailbag Questions
How do you evaluate teams that have a high number of players from the transfer portal on their roster?Mike S.
It's tough. I think anyone who bets on college football both recreationally and professionally will admit that handicapping early-season games has become an extremely difficult task. Any time that there is a team that has a large number of transfers, I personally like to look toward the head coach. Has he been with the program for a while? Does he have a good track record of recruiting elite-level players through the transfer portal? Is the team a Group of Six or a Power Four team? If it's a Group of Six team, are all the good players from a year ago transferring away because of a successful previous season? If it's a Power Four team, are they bringing in transfers to replace elite talent or to improve from a bad last season?
Asking yourself as many questions as possible is the key to handicapping a game in any sport. The transfer portal has simply added more questions to your checklist.
How do you handle betting on games that have a lopsided spread of 40+ points?Sean H.
One of the biggest things I look at when betting on big spreads is how the coach has handled blowing out teams in the past. Has he taken his foot off the gas, or has he kept his starters in for the entire game? A great example of this is Kirby Smart, the head coach for the Georgia Bulldogs, who has a history of not covering big spreads because of his tendency not to pile on teams he's already beating by a wide margin. As Joe Osborne of Covers has pointed out, Georgia is just 0-15-1 against the spread when favored by 38+ points under Kirby Smart.
Georgia is 0-15-1 ATS under Kirby Smart when favored by at least 38 points.
— Joe Osborne (@JTFOz) September 3, 2026
On Saturday, they're favored by 47.5 (!!!) against a Tennessee State team that went 2-10 SU last season and averaged just 12.9 points per game.
Will the trend continue?
What do you think is one game that could end in a massive upset?Hannah N.
If I were to predict a crazy upset that's likely not going to happen, but one that I wouldn't be completely shocked if it does, it'd be Texas State against Texas. Texas State is set as a 22-1 underdog on the moneyline at FanDuel.
We saw Texas start slowly last season, including Arch Manning stumbling out of the gate. Are we sure that doesn't happen again in 2026?
Let's also remember this Texas State offense was underrated last season, ranking 35th in the country in adjusted EPA per play and 30th in offensive success rate.
It's likely not going to happen, but if you're going to press me to pick one massive upset, I'll take Texas State to win this in-state showdown.
Can Clemson get back to being a National Championship contender?DeSean B.
No, not while Dabo Swinney is there. I respect his resilience to the old ways, but we've never seen that strategy work at the professional sports level, and let's be honest, college sports is no longer an amateur competition.
Look no further than Curt Cignetti last season, who leaned on the transfer portal and brought in veteran talent. He turned a perennial losing program into a national champion. Swinney should always be regarded as a Clemson hero, but until he either completely changes his ways or they bring in a new coach, I'm out on Clemson. Give me LSU to cover the spread against them in Week 1.
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Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.
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