NoleGameday Staff Score Predictions: FSU Football vs. New Mexico State

The Florida State have just over 24 hours remaining until they kick off their 2026 season against the New Mexico State Aggies.

272 days have passed since Florida State's last game and though the results of the past two years have been disappointing, there are still plenty of Seminole fans ready to pack Doak Campbell Stadium.

Though FSU isn't facing a marquee opponent to open the fall, this is an opportunity for head coach Mike Norvell's squad to build confidence ahead of tough games against SMU and Alabama.

The Aggies are hoping to make a statement in Tallahassee. With that being said, the program has yet to advance to a bowl game under head coach Tony Sanchez and is breaking in multiple new starters, including quarterback transfer Trey Hedden.

Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles prepare to take on New Mexico State.

Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)

Nov 1, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Duce Robinson (0) celebrates a pass catch during the second half against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It's finally time for some Florida State football. Following the longest offseason in recent memory, there's no more talking about it, a short time from now we'll actually get to see this team on the field against a real opponent.

There's no telling what to expect. On paper, this team isn't as talented as a year ago, but we've all seen where having more talent has gotten Florida State recently. Leadership could be the difference. The Seminoles appear to have a group of players that care about achieving a common goal, rather than just playing for themselves.

Tony Sanchez looks like he's getting New Mexico State in a better spot, but the Aggies are outmatched on both sides of the ball. Even with the struggles last season, Florida State still went 5-2 at home, taking East Texas A&M and Kent State to the woodshed.

The Seminoles' secondary needs to be up to the task, as NMSU quarterback Trey Hedden is more of a traditional passer than a runner. With three new starters and a new coach in the back end, that's a detail worth watching.

The main thing with a game like this is staying healthy, along with not giving away too much before Labor Day. At the same time, how are some of the Seminoles' key players going to look in a contest they are expected to dominate?

I'll have a close eye on Ashton Daniels, Ousmane Kromah, Duce Robinson, Micahi Danzy, the Desir twins, Chris Jones, Rylan Kennedy, Ashlynd Barker, and Ja'Bril Rawls. Not to mention, the revamped offensive line, which is a clear point of intrigue.

Weather might have an impact on Saturday, and this is a season opener with a roster littered with fresh faces. It wouldn't be a surprise if Florida State takes about a quarter to settle into this one.

Either way, I'm expecting a sizeable victory to begin the fall, though it won't be a perfect night.

Hopefully, we'll get a look at Malachi Marshall and Kevin Sperry as this one falls out of New Mexico State's reach.

How many games did Dustin predict correctly in 2025? 5-7

Seminoles 41, Aggies 10

Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)

This one won’t be a close game, so here’s what I’m looking for. Leadership. Who is holding guys accountable? We saw that early in the Alabama game last year. Linebackers flying to gaps. Overboard on communication. I think Chris Jones is going to be a highlight early on Saturday night, someone holding the standard of doing that along with Mandrell Desir.

I want to see what all this buzz is about regarding true freshman wide receiver Jasen Lopez. The dude has been getting tons of love from coaches and teammates. How big of a playmaker is this young man? I’m excited to find out.

Communication is so important for this newly built offensive line. Are they making easy holes early for the stacked backfield the ‘Noles will have this year? Is protection of Ashton Daniels strong? I think Herb Hand isn’t fully settled with his line, so this will be a good test before finalizing ahead of SMU next week.

I’ve got the Seminoles spanking New Mexico State, as they should, but some of the small things will be important to watch as they have their first ACC game under the lights against a well-coached SMU team very soon.

How many games did Logan predict correctly in 2025? 4-8

Seminoles 44, Aggies 10

Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)

As pessimistic as I’ve been about the team this offseason, this really shouldn’t be a challenge. If it is, oh boy, are we in for a long season (we already are, but I digress).

New Mexico State was one of the worst teams in Conference USA last year, and they’re projected to finish in the bottom three in the conference again.

I expect FSU to really pile up the yards, and fans want to see some Malachi Marshall and Kevin Sperry battle in the second half.

Will that amount to points? Maybe, depends on how well they take care of the ball. I think they’re still evaluating a lot about the depth of this team, so the final score won’t be as bad as we saw last year against Kent State or East Texas A&M.

If I’m correct on how this season will go, this will be FSU’s only time above .500 this year.

How many games did Austin predict correctly in 2025? 6-6

Seminoles 55, Aggies 10

Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)

I don’t think it will take long to see how the game will play out, with FSU the overwhelming favorite.

It will be Ashton Daniels’ debut in Garnet and Gold, and FSU’s advantage in depth and explosive playmakers should become increasingly apparent as the game progresses.

I don’t expect them to open up the full playbook, but it will be a good chance to see the new offensive line and the players on both sides of the ball we’ve been talking about all offseason.

The Seminoles should control the line of scrimmage, force New Mexico State into difficult passing situations, and pull away comfortably by halftime.

How many games did Tommy predict correctly in 2025? 5-7

Seminoles 42, Aggies 10

Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)

After a relatively quiet summer in the way of practice updates, Florida State Football returns to action on Saturday in what should be a tune-up game for the Seminoles against the visiting Aggies of New Mexico State. Despite an offseason marked by frustration and borderline apathy from portions of the Florida State fanbase, Tallahassee should once again be abuzz with excitement for the return of college football.

The Week 0 contest is not free of consequences, however, all eyes will descend upon Head Coach Mike Norvell, who is sure to remain under a microscope from week to week. Onlookers will be watching closely, dissecting everything from personnel decisions and sideline behavior to tempo and play selection, with even the smallest choices likely to invite scrutiny.

That attention will only intensify now that Norvell has once again taken over play-calling duties for the offense. Regardless, this weekend's matchup presents the 'Noles with an opportunity to showcase what they are capable of in the wake of roster shake-ups, staff changes, and mounting pressure to deliver results.

This is a game Florida State should dictate from the opening whistle. Historically, Norvell has had his teams ready to play in season openers, and I do not expect that to change against New Mexico State. Offensively, I am looking forward to the return of a Norvell-led attack and seeing what QB Ashton Daniels can do operating within it. This should be an opportunity for the offense to establish an identity, build some confidence, and offer early signs that the changes made throughout the offseason are beginning to take hold before conference play begins next week.

On the defensive side of the ball, I am particularly interested in seeing the strides made by DL Mandrell Desir and DB Ashlynd Barker as they enter their second year in Tony White's defense, while transfer LB Chris Jones is another player I fully expect to make an immediate impact.

Florida State is expected to win comfortably on Saturday, and I believe that is exactly what we'll see from this group. Sure, we may witness the occasional mistake or missed assignment early, but the talent gap should become increasingly apparent as the evening progresses.

Beyond simply winning, the Seminoles need to look organized, physical, and decisive on both sides of the ball while avoiding the type of self-inflicted mistakes that have repeatedly plagued them in recent years.

Ultimately, I expect Norvell's group to come out on the attack, build a comfortable lead, and give the Doak Campbell Stadium crowd a much-needed spark of energy and sense of pride heading into a critical Labor Day matchup against SMU.

How many games did Dillon predict correctly in 2025? 4-8

Seminoles 38, Aggies 17

CONSENSUS: Florida State (5-0)

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