NoleGameday Staff Season Predictions: What Will FSU Football's 2026 Record Be?

The last two years haven't lived up to the lofty standard in Tallahassee. In fact, back-to-back losing seasons and a 2-10 campaign in 2024 have fallen well below what Florida State fans have come to expect.

There's growing pressure on head coach Mike Norvell entering the 2026 season. It wasn't that long ago that Norvell signed a contract that made him one of college football's highest-paid coaches. Since then, the program has fallen off a cliff.

Back calling the offense, Norvell has basically an entirely new unit to put together. Florida State lost starters at every position, including all five of its offensive linemen. Ashton Daniels' consistency and confidence will dictate how far the Seminoles can climb.

The schedule doesn't provide many favors. Eight of Florida State's opponents made bowl games last year, with Miami and Alabama advancing to the College Football Playoff. The Hurricanes came up just short in the national championship game. The Crimson Tide will have revenge on their mind.

Florida State will be on the road for four of five games in the middle of the season, a stretch that could make or break the program.

Our staff looks ahead at a critical season and provides record predictions for the Seminoles.

Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)

Oct 11, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles running back Ousmane Kromah (32) is tackled by Pittsburgh Panthers linebacker Braylan Lovelace (0) during the second half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This isn't an easy season to predict. Florida State is 7-17 overall since 2024 and hasn't won a road game in 1,007 days, which is well over two years and counting. Mike Norvell just doesn't seem like the same coach post-College Football Playoff snub. He hasn't been able to get the program back to show any sort of consistency.

Maybe something drastically changes this season with the shakeups to the coaching staff and the rebuilding of the culture in the locker room. It's hard to believe in such an extreme correction this deep into Norvell's tenure.

Nevertheless, Norvell has spoken highly of this team and believes in the talent, combined with leadership, across the roster. There are certainly areas where the Seminoles still have to prove themselves, especially at quarterback, offensive line, and defensive line.

On offense, if the trenches hold up and Daniels is capable, Florida State can survive by feeding the football to Duce Robinson, Micahi Danzy, Ousmane Kromah, Samuel Singleton Jr., and Quintrevion Wisner.

Defensively, it really comes down to the defensive line. What will the unit look like after a disappointing season? The Desir's and Rylan Kennedy are pivotal pieces, along with Daniel Lyons. Chris Jones has to be the leader in the middle while Ja'Bril Rawls and Ashlynd Barker command the back end.

Florida State has a brutal slate against most of the top teams in the ACC. The Seminoles are hoping to play spoiler, but until the road woes are proven to be corrected, it's hard to count on this team outside of Tallahassee.

Luckily, Clemson, Florida, SMU, Virginia, and NC State are among the programs traveling to Doak Campbell Stadium. FSU lost to four of those five teams on the road a year ago, and fell at SMU two seasons ago.

There's a path back to bowl eligibility, but the ceiling of this roster isn't as high as year's past. 6-6 would technically be an improvement, though not an endearing finish.

2026 Record Prediction: 6-6

Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)

This season comes down to three things for me this year. How has Mike Norvell adapted in his play calling? Norvell used to have great success understanding his personnel and utilizing them in the best way possible. In 2024, that didn’t happen. This offense has talent, there’s no doubting that, but two pieces have to click, and that’s Ashton Daniels and the offensive line.

Daniels has expressed, which I respect his transparency, his inconsistency in confidence throughout games. That’s something Norvell, quarterback’s coach Austin Tucker, have tried to improve immediately upon his arrival. We’ve heard great things this fall camp about that being better, but Daniels will have to show us early in the season, primarily on primetime against SMU on Labor Day Night.

My last point is (and usually always is, as it has haunted FSU since Jared Verse left) the impact of the pass rush. Is Rylan Kennedy able to cause havoc? Is Jalen Anderson ready to be a pure starter on the opposite side to help out Kennedy? I know what I’m getting from Mandrell… Can his twin Darryll also take a big stride?

I’m keeping a close eye on the interior too. Daniel Lyons will need help. Can Kevin Wynn sustain three plays and still be impactful? If Tony White’s defense can’t cause pressure, it’s going to look a lot like the last two seasons.

I can’t lie, I feel more optimistic after fall camp than I did during the spring, but I still see the ceiling being at six wins.

2026 Record Prediction: 6-6

Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)

This is very easily the most pessimistic I have ever been entering a season for Florida State football.

Ashton Daniels at quarterback, Mike Norvell calling plays again, no premier pass rusher, questions on the offensive line, and a concerning lack of depth on the defensive line have me really concerned about what this season could be.

There are pieces to like. Duce Robinson is one of the best receivers in college football, and Micahi Danzy is arguably the fastest player in college football, but I don’t trust the QB to get them the ball. I like the running back room a lot, but I don’t trust the offensive line in front of them like I did last year. The defense really only added Chris Jones at linebacker as a quality piece, which is nice, but it’s questionable in front of him.

There are people who are perpetually optimistic about Florida State because of what we expect the standard to be, but realistically, this team has very little to be optimistic about.

I said 4-8 in our season prediction podcast last week, and nothing has changed my mind in the last week or so. I think the absolute ceiling is 7-5. There is a world where they only win 2 or 3 games again. But I’ll stick with the 4-8.

2026 Record Prediction: 4-8

Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)

Florida State has enough returning talent to reach the postseason, but its schedule leaves little room for error. New Mexico State and Central Arkansas should be manageable nonconference matchups, while Alabama, Miami, Louisville, and Clemson will provide a true measure of the program’s progress. Swing games against SMU, Virginia, Boston College, Pitt, NC State, and Florida will likely determine whether FSU climbs above .500.

I have the Seminoles finishing 6-6, with a team that could push them into the 7-5 range or drop them into another 5-7 year.

Daniels, Robinson, Danzy, and Kromah should give the offense enough balance to move the needle, but as of now, a re-tooled offensive line creates uncertainty, and the Seminoles must prove they can win away from home.

2026 Record Prediction: 6-6

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