ESPN's FPI predicts every game on Georgia Tech's schedule
Georgia Tech is set to begin its 2023 season next Friday against Louisville in Mercedes Benz Stadium and that game is going to be one of the most intriguing games in the first week of the season. Georgia Tech is only an eight-point underdog in the game and a win would give them momentum to start the 2023 year.
But according to ESPN's FPI, Georgia Tech is going to struggle to win that game and plenty of others this season.
ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."
ESPN's FPI predicted every game on Georgia Tech's schedule and here were the results.
Game 1: vs Louisville:
ESPN FPI gives Louisville a 63.4% chance to win (0-1 record, 0-1 ACC)
This is a game that is going to be closer than most think. Louisville is thought of as a dark horse to win the ACC, but they have a brand new team full of transfers and while Jeff Brohm is a very good coach, it is still his first game as the head coach and the Cardinals have a lot to replace on the front-seven on defense. Still, FPI gives this game to the Cardinals, but 63% is not high in confidence.
Game 2: vs South Carolina State
ESPN FPI gives Georgia Tech a 96.5% chance to win (1-1 record, 0-1 ACC)
This should be Georgia Tech's easiest game on the schedule and the Yellow Jackets should win comfortably, as reflected in the FPI odds.
Game 3: At Ole Miss
Georgia Tech faces Ole Miss in week three of the season
ESPN FPI gives Ole Miss an 86.1% chance to win (1-2, 0-1)
This is going to be one of the hardest games on the schedule for Georgia Tech and the first road game of the year. Ole Miss has done a good job of replenishing talent via the transfer portal and Oxford is a tough place to play. The Rebels won 42-3 last season, but Geoff Collins was still coaching Georgia Tech.
Game 4: at Wake Forest
ESPN FPI gives Wake Forest a 72.4% chance to win (1-3, 0-2)
FPI is not giving Georgia Tech much of a chance to win on the road against Wake Forest and that does not make a lot of sense to me. The Demon Deacons can win for sure, but they are replacing a lot of talent on offense and the defense is a big question mark. I picked Georgia Tech to win this game in my season predictions and I think they have a better chance than what FPI is giving them.
Game 5: vs Bowling Green
ESPN FPI gives Georgia Tech an 84% chance to win (2-3, 0-2)
This should be another easy Georgia Tech win and one they should win comfortably at home.
Game 6: at Miami
ESPN FPI gives Miami an 81.7% chance to win (2-4, 0-3)
Can Georgia Tech beat Miami on the road?
Georgia Tech was trailing Miami 14-7 at home last season when quarterback Zach Pyron got hurt and then Miami pulled away and won 35-14. The Yellow Jackets have to go on the road this season to face the Hurricanes, who need a bounce-back season after going 5-7 a year ago.
FPI is not giving GT much of a chance in this one and on paper that makes sense, but it is hard to know what to expect from Miami this year. They could bounce back in a big way, but they have to show it.
Game 7: vs Boston College
ESPN FPI gives Georgia Tech a 63% chance to win (3-4, 1-3)
Coming off of a bye week, Georgia Tech will be facing an ACC team that is hoping to make a bowl game as well. The Yellow Jackets have the edge here by getting this game at home and this is a game that I think they will win as well.
Game 8: vs North Carolina
ESPN FPI gives North Carolina a 71.4% chance to win this game (3-5, 1-4)
Georgia Tech has won two straight games against North Carolina and the Tar Heels will be coming to Bobby Dodd for what will be homecoming for Georgia Tech. North Carolina is returning Drake Maye at quarterback, but have plenty of questions elsewhere, especially on defense. Georgia Tech has shown they can pull an upset over a ranked North Carolina team before and they will might need to again.
Game 9: at Virginia
ESPN FPI gives Virginia a 52.2% chance to win this game (3-6, 1-5)
FPI views this game as a coin flip. UVA is projected to be the worst team in the ACC this season, but this is going to be a game that both teams will be trying to win. The Cavaliers won an ugly game in Atlanta last season and Georgia Tech will be looking to get their revenge in this game. I picked Georgia Tech to win this game, even on the road and I think they should be favored.
Game 10: at Clemson
ESPN FPI gives Clemson a 92.1% chance to win this game (3-7, 1-6)
Clemson is the favorite in the ACC this year and Georgia Tech has not won in this rivalry since 2014. The Yellow Jackets nearly pulled a stunning upset the last time they were in Death Valley, but this is going to be a tall task for Key and his team and the odds reflect that.
Game 11: vs Syracuse
ESPN's FPI gives Syracuse a 64.3% chance to win this game (3-8, 1-7)
The FPI odds on this game surprised me. Syracuse had a good season a year ago, but they are losing some good talent on defense and running back Sean Tucker. Losing offensive coordinator Robert Anae hurts as well and with the game being in Atlanta, I think Georgia Tech has a good chance of competing and winning this game.
Game 12: vs Georgia
ESPN's FPI gives Georgia a 94.7% chance of winning (3-9, 1-7)
The odds are obviously going to be stacked against Georgia Tech in this game against the back-to-back national champions. This is a likely loss, but Key is trying to get this rivalry back to being competitive. It just likely is not going to be this year.
Final record according to FPI: 3-9, 1-7 ACC
I don't agree with ESPN's FPI on some of these games. I think they are overrating Syracuse and Wake Forest a little bit and while Virginia could outperform expectations, that is also a winnable game. The only games I don't like Georgia Tech's chances to win at all are against Georgia, Clemson, and Ole Miss and while Georgia Tech will be underdogs against Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, and Wake Forest, I can envision how the Yellow Jackets pull an upset.
Georgia Tech kicks off the 2023 season against Louisville on Sept. 1st
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