SP+ Predicts Final Score For Georgia Tech vs Mercer Matchup In Week 3

How does SP+ see the matchup vs Mercer?

Georgia Tech running back Justice Haynes (22) is defended by Tennessee defensive back Ty Redmond (4) during a college football game between Tennessee and Georgia Tech at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta, Ga., on Sept. 12, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Georgia Tech is 0-2 and looking to get in the win column on Saturday when they host the Mercer Bears at home on the Flats. Georgia Tech is searching for answers and trying to get things going to get the season back on track. A win can do a lot for a team, building confidence and moving forward in the right direction. Now it's time to turn the page and look ahead to Saturday, which should be a winnable game for the Yellow Jackets. 

Georgia Tech is favored by the sportsbooks and most power rating systems ahead of Saturday’s game, including ESPN analyst Bill Connelly's SP+. For those that don't know, here is how Connelly describes what SP+ is:

"As always: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking."

Georgia Tech opens as a heavy favorite against Mercer at home. The Yellow Jackets are given a 91% win probability vs Mercer. Connelly has a projected win for the Yellow Jackets, 35-14, at home against the Bears. ESPN FPI gives Georgia Tech a 92.8% chance to win at home and get their first win of the season. 

Can Georgia Tech get their first win?

Sep 12, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets head coach Brent Key on the sideline against the Tennessee Volunteers in the second quarter at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Yellow Jackets are still in search of their first win of the season, and the offense must be better if that is going to become a reality. Georgia Tech has just two offensive touchdowns through eight quarters and has leaned heavily on its defense and special teams for much of its scoring. That is simply now a receipt for success for the Yellow Jackets. However, Georgia Tech showed some positive signs in their second-half offense that could mean they've figured some things out. 

"Well, I mean. I thought Alberto was in a pretty good rhythm. Obviously, I know he had the two turnovers, but, you know, he'll grow from those. He'll learn from them. But I thought the ability just to – we were spreading the ball around on the perimeter, you know, throwing some quick game, throwing some kind of intermediate-type stuff, and then kind of made a couple adjustments in the run game when they – seeing what they were playing.

And some of those worked. I mean, some of those were good things. And we were able to take advantage of some of the things that we're doing. So just all in all, I mean, an offense is going to be better when you stay on track, when you stay efficient, when you're in manageable D&Ds. If you're sitting there playing at second and 10, second and 12, the whole game, it's going to be hard to ever have a functioning offense. But we stayed ahead of the chains, I thought, better tonight than we did last week for sure,” said Key. 

Saturday could be the game where we finally see the team figure it out and move in the right direction before they get ready for ACC play. For one, we need both lines of scrimmage to be better to have a chance to change the season. 

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