SP+ rankings for each of Georgia Tech's remaining opponents

How tough of a schedule does Georgia Tech have the rest of the way?

Author:
Jackson Caudell
Publish date:
Oct 11, 2023 5:29 PM EDT

In this story:

Georgia Tech is 3-3 at the midpoint of the season and after their win over Miami, there is real hope that this team can win three more games and get to a bowl game for the first time since 2018.

The Yellow Jackets annually play one of the toughest schedules in the ACC and the country and have already faced three currently ranked opponents (Louisville, Ole Miss, Miami) and have a couple of more on the schedule (North Carolina and Georgia), not to mention a road game against Clemson. Games against Boston College, Virginia, and Syracuse are must wins for the Yellow Jackets.

So what exactly is SP+ and what goes into making these rankings? Here is how Connelly formulates his rankings in his own words:

"I base SP+ projections on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production make up about half of the projections formula

2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning this season, I am also incorporating transfers -- both the quality and the volume -- in a different way. After last season's transfer-heavy recruiting shift, I've got a bit more data for how to handle that. This piece makes up about one-third of the projections formula.

3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This is a minor piece of the puzzle -- only about 15% -- but the projections are better with it than without.

A reminder on SP+: It's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year."

Currently, Georgia Tech is ranked 70th in SP+, with the 57th-ranked offense, 75th-ranked defense, and 105th-ranked special teams.

So how does SP+ rank the rest of Georgia Tech's opponents?

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To no surprise, Georgia is the highest-ranked remaining opponent for Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs rank 2nd in SP+, trailing only Michigan. Georgia has the 6th-ranked offense, 4th-ranked defense, and 34th-ranked special teams.

Despite having two losses, Clemson ranks 11th on SP+, with the No. 26 offense, No. 7 defense, and No. 69 special teams.

North Carolina ranks 18th in SP+, with the No. 11 offense, No. 42 defense, and No. 43 special teams.

There is a big gap between those three opponents and the others. Syracuse is No. 38 (No. 54 offense, No. 34 defense, and No. 37 Special teams), UVA is No. 86 (No. 109 offense, No. 57 defense, and No. 88 special teams) and Boston College is No. 94 (No. 90 offense, No. 93 defense, and No. 60 special teams).

Ranking Georgia Tech's remaining opponents by SP+ rating:

1. Georgia

2. Clemson

3. North Carolina

4. Syracuse

5. Virginia

6. Boston College

The Yellow Jackets are off this week and return to the field at home against Boston College next Saturday at 12:00 p.m. on the ACC Network.

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