What Chance Does SP+ and ESPN's FPI Give Georgia Tech Against Florida State?

Georgia Tech is a massive underdog on the road against Florida State on Saturday

Author:
Jackson Caudell
Publish date:
Oct 26, 2022 11:30 AM EDT

In this story:

Last week against Virginia, Georgia Tech was favored by ESPN's FPI and Bill Connelly's SP+ analytical system for only the second time all season. Most weeks, Georgia Tech has been given only around a 15% chance to win each game, and for this week's game against Florida State, the Yellow Jackets are once again being given a slim to none chance to win.

Georgia Tech running back Dontae Smith — Georgia Tech is not being given much of a chance against Florida State this Saturday
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

For this weekend's matchup against Florida State, FPI is giving Georgia Tech only a nine percent chance to go into Tallahassee and get the victory. That is one of the lower percentages of the season, but it is similar to what FPI said about Georgia Tech's chances against Pittsburgh. The Yellow Jackets were only given around a 10% chance to win that game and Tech pulled the big upset.

Connelly's SP+ system actually gives Georgia Tech a more optimistic view.

Here is what SP+ is in Connelly's own words:

"What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system."

"SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

SP+ is projecting a 17-point victory and gives the Seminoles an 84% chance to win. The projected score in the game is 35-18.

The Yellow Jackets are once again going to have to pull an upset as a significant underdog. Let's see if they are up for the challenge on Saturday.

Georgia Tech vs Florida State will kick off at noon on Saturday. The game will be televised on the ACC Network.

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