What Does ESPN's FPI Say About Georgia Tech's Matchup Against Syracuse?

Georgia Tech is a heavy favorite at home during homecoming weekend against Syracuse

Oct 18, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets fans wave goodbye as Duke fans leave during the second half of the game at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

This will be an intriguing matchup for the Yellow Jackets on Saturday against the Syracuse Orange, a team they struggled with a year ago. However, these are two different teams this year with different rosters. Georgia Tech has way more depth than it did a year ago at every position. The Orange, who had one of the better quarterbacks in the NCAA in Kyle McCord in 2024, has struggled mightily at the position in 2025.

Syracuse has been dealing with injuries, notably to QB Steve Angeli, who tore his Achilles back in a win against Clemson. Rickie Collins has stepped in since, but has been up and down in his play this season. He struggled last weekend against Pittsburgh, going 15-31 for only 126 yards and three interceptions. The play has been questionable at best and has hurt their chances this season.

ESPN FPI highly favors the Yellow Jackets, giving them an 86.6% chance to win and Syracuse just a 13.4% chance to win. Georgia Tech has seen a slight rise in the ranking for ESPN FPI, moving to the No. 26 overall team. They have also nearly doubled their chances to make the College Football Playoff from 20% to now 40%.

Syracuse has been up and down this season

Oct 18, 2025; Syracuse, New York, USA; Syracuse Orange quarterback Luke Carney (11) drops back to pass against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the second half at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-Imagn Images | Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

We have seen the highs and the lows of the orange in 2025. The highs came when they went on the road and beat a heavily favored Clemson team in Death Valley, scoring 34 points and putting up 433 total yards of offense. It has been downhill ever since for Syracuse, which has lost three consecutive games since that win, and has been held under 20 points in the last three contests. The offense had its worst game of the season against Duke, only scoring three points at home back in September. The Orange's only complete game was against Clemson this season, and their offense has struggled to put points on the board. Their defense has also struggled to keep games close and is giving up a lot of points, which bodes in favor of the Yellow Jackets.

Georgia Tech has shown they are a second-half team throughout the year and have dealt with some first half struggles as they get acclimated and adjusted to teams. It was apparent in the game against Duke that the Yellow Jackets need more involvement from their pass catchers and tight ends. The second half saw this, and the Yellow Jackets took full control of the game and use more of their passing attack, which gave Duke problems. I don’t know what it is, but this team plays a lot better after halftime. Head coach Brent Key talked about it in the postgame.

“The one thing this team believes, and we preach all the time, is can you go four quarters playing that way? Right? Because the body blows do eventually add up over the course of time. To play that way, every single play of every single quarter, every possession, that's hard to do. And I think by the fourth quarter, our guys had worn them down and we were able to get some good things going,” said Key. “But they've got a really good defensive line. We knew that coming in. It was like they were playing with 12 sometimes. And it was how we got sustained blocks. So it's all things we've got to continue to get better at. But at the end of the day, we'll talk about those with the team tomorrow and correct them. I'm super excited for this team to be 7 -0 for the first time in a long time."

Hopefully, this will be a game that Georgia Tech dominates from start to finish and leaves on doubt on Saturday, and can give the fans a strong performance on homecoming weekend.

What exactly is FPI though?

"ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."