Best and worst case scenarios for Gonzaga on Selection Sunday

It is officially Selection Sunday, the day Mark Few and the Gonzaga Bulldogs find out what their path back to the Sweet 16 - and beyond - will look like when the NCAA Tournament gets underway later in the week.

Gonzaga (30-3) won a share of the WCC regular season title as well as the outright WCC Tournament, securing the league's automatic bid one final time before they make the move to the new-look Pac-12 in 2026-27.

Even with Braden Huff missing the final 15 games of the season, as well as multi-game absences from Graham Ike and Jalen Warley, the Zags persevered through the adversity to put together an excellent season, with one significant blemish coming in early February on the road against the Portland Pilots.

Now, fans await word on when, where, and who Gonzaga will face to begin the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Below is a look at the best and worst-case scenarios for GU this afternoon:

Best Case: 3 Seed

A No. 2 seed felt like a pipe dream after the team's loss to Portland, and at this point, it is all but certain the highest seed Gonzaga will land is a No. 3. Duke, Michigan, and Arizona are locked in as No. 1 seeds, with Florida, UConn, and Houston vying for the final spot. The last two No. 2 seeds are likely going to some combination of Iowa State, Michigan State, Illinois, or Purdue, and it's hard to argue Gonzaga's resume belongs over three of those four teams.

Still, a three seed is a solid result for Gonzaga, which currently sits at No. 6 in the NET with a 7-2 record in Quad 1 games, as well as No. 10 at KenPom and No. 13 in wins above bubble (WAB), which is a heavily utilized metric by the Selection Committee.

A 3-seed in Portland would be great for Gonzaga players, coaches, and fans alike, especially if the No. 1 seed in the region is Arizona - potentially setting up an Elite Eight battle between longtime friends Mark Few and Tommy Lloyd for the first time since Lloyd left for Tucson in 2021.

Worst Case: 5 Seed

It seems very unlikely that a three-loss Gonzaga team would drop as far as a No. 5 seed, but it is within the realm of possibility - especially after the committee surprisingly dropped the Zags to a No. 8 seed last year when most predictors had them slotted as a No. 6.

Gonzaga's resume is that of a No. 3 seed, but a few recent results could push the Zags down a bit. However, both Alabama and Kansas lost before the semifinals of their respective conference tournaments, and it seems unlikely Gonzaga would fall below even one of them, let alone both.

St. John's thrashing of UConn in the Big East championship could help Rick Pitino's team move up to the No. 4 line, and if Arkansas handles Vanderbilt in the SEC championship on Sunday, they could be a No. 4 seed as well. While that could push Gonzaga to the five line, it seems more likely that they would stay among the four seeds, with Kansas and/or Vanderbilt falling from a four to a five.

Gonzaga will learn their fate on Sunday, March 15, at 3:00 PM PT on CBS when the Selection Sunday show begins.

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