Bracketology: NCAA reveals early top seeds, and it bodes well for Gonzaga
The NCAA Tournament selection committee revealed its initial top 16 seeds as if the postseason were to start on Saturday.
There weren't many surprises at the top — Purdue was the No. 1 overall seed, followed by reigning national champion UConn at No. 2, Houston at No. 3 and Pac-12 leader Arizona at No. 4. The Boilermakers have the most Quad 1 and 2 wins in the country, while the Huskies and Cougars are tied with eight Quad 1 wins and the Wildcats have seven.
The No. 2 seeds were also to be expected: North Carolina, Tennessee, Marquette and Kansas. A case can be made against the Tar Heels' position after they lost three straight in ACC play, though they're 10-5 in the first two quadrants (Marquette is also 10-5 in those games) and the committee doesn't put much into recent results.
Iowa State has a strong argument to be on the 2-seed line over Big 12 nemesis Kansas, as the Cyclones are higher in the NET, have just as many Quad 1 and 2 wins as the Jayhawks and are perfect in Quad 3 and 4 games (Kansas has a Q3 loss to West Virginia). Not to mention Iowa State won the only head-to-head meeting, 79-75, and has won four in a row heading into a big game against Houston on Monday.
The Cyclones are on the 3-seed line with Duke, Alabama and Baylor. The Crimson Tide sit atop the SEC standings have eight Quad 1 and 2 wins, which are just as many as Iowa State and more than Duke. The Bears have rebounded from their 3-3 start in league play, sit third in the Big 12 standings and have six Quad 1 wins — the most in the conference.
The 4-seed line is where things get interesting. The committee had Auburn, San Diego State, Illinois and Wisconsin. The Badgers have lost four of their last five games, two of which were to Michigan and Rutgers. The Aztecs feel out of place to some based on the fact they aren't ranked in the AP Top 25 poll, which by no means is a determining factor for the committee.
At the same time, the selection committee's decision to put SDSU and Wisconsin among the top 16 seeds proves just how vital the NET Rankings are this time of year. The Aztecs are up to 15th in the NET and have five Quad 1 wins, while the Badgers sit at 20th with six Quad 1 wins. Recency bias and lack of respect in the AP Poll didn't matter to the committee, which should bode well for Gonzaga's at-large resume.
Despite a 1-5 record in Quad 1 play, the Bulldogs sit at 22nd in the NET and only have one loss in the other three quadrants. The Zags lack of signature wins would normally spell doom, as only four teams with fewer than two Quad 1 wins have earned at-large bids since 2019. Gonzaga will have two more cracks to boost its resume at San Francisco (Feb. 29) and at Saint Mary's (March 2), as well as in the WCC Tournament, though its current position in the NET should indicate that an at-large bid isn't out of the question.
Another interesting fact to consider: no team ranked in the top 25 of the NET and KenPom has missed the NCAA Tournament.
Per Bart Torvik, Gonzaga has a 93.2% chance to go dancing next month and an 89.2% chance if it doesn't get the WCC's automatic bid. For all the aspects of the NET that are confusing, it could bode really well for the Bulldogs on Selection Sunday.
