Gonzaga gets favorable NCAA Tournament projection ahead of Saint Mary's showdown

Mark Few and the Gonzaga Bulldogs already secured the No. 1 seed in the WCC Tournament, but will look to win the conference outright on Saturday night in Moraga.

At 28-2, the Zags have put themselves firmly in the conversation for a top 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, with Saturday's road game against Saint Mary's an opportunity to add to their stellar 6-1 record in Quad 1 games.

Right now Gonzaga is trending toward a No. 3 seed in the west region, which has the major perk of being played just a few hundred miles away in Portland, OR at the Moda Center, while the locations for the No. 2 seeds - Tampa, Buffalo, and two in Saint Louis - are less ideal.

Joe Lunardi, ESPN's resident Bracketologist, placed Gonzaga as the No. 3 seed in Portland in his updated projections on Friday, squaring them off against No. 14 seed UC Irvine, the projected automatic qualifier from the Big West.

The Anteaters are 19-10 overall and 12-5 in conference play, tied atop the standings with Hawaii. Coach Russ Turner's team is excellent defensively, ranking No. 25 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, although they are untested against high level competition - having lost all three matchup against KenPom top 100 teams: at Utah Valley, at home to Northern Iowa, and at home to Belmont.

The No. 6 vs No. 11 matchup in Gonzaga's pod is an incredible showdown between old Mountain West foes BYU and San Diego State, with the Aztecs moving back into the Field of 68 after a massive home win over Utah State, 89-72, on Wednesday night.

Gonzaga has plenty of history with both west coast powerhouse programs, including facing BYU for over a decade in the WCC. That included BYU handing Gonzaga their only regular season loss in 2016-17, and an epic Julian Strawther game winner in Provo in 2022-23.

Jan 12, 2023; Provo, Utah, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Anton Watson (22) reacts to a three point shot by guard Julian Strawther (0) to take the lead in the last minute of a game against the Brigham Young Cougars at Marriott Center. | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Meanwhile, Gonzaga and San Diego State have had many heated battles, including Kawhi Leonard and company beating Gonzaga in Spokane in 2010, and Gonzaga taking down SDSU at Viejas Arena in 2024. The pair will look to establish a consistent rivalry as members of the new look Pac-12 conference, alongside Utah State, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Washington State, Oregon State, and Texas State, in 2026-27.

Lunardi has both Saint Mary's and Santa Clara in the field, with the Broncos now in a play-in game against Indiana as a No. 11 seed after they lost badly to the Gaels in Moraga on Wednesday, 86-67. Meanwhile SMC moves up to a No. 8 seed, where they are projected to face No. 9 Clemson before a potential second round matchup against No. 1 Arizona.

The Gaels would love to send Gonzaga out of the WCC with a loss on Saturday, and a win could help Saint Mary's secure a No. 7 seed, making it so they don't have to face one of the No. 1 seeds in the second round.

After closing out the regular season at Saint Mary's, Gonzaga will get a triple-bye into the semifinals of the WCC Tournament, with their first matchup on Monday, March 9 against an opponent to be determined. The championship will likely be against either Saint Mary's or Santa Clara, another Quad 1 opportunity for the Zags to bolster their resume even more before Selection Sunday.