Has Santa Clara passed Saint Mary's as the second-best team in the WCC?
Entering his eighth season at the helm of the Santa Clara men's basketball program, Herb Sendek echoed a sentiment many coaches around the West Coast Conference have felt for years. With Gonzaga claiming the league's throne for a quarter-century now and Saint Mary's not that far behind, the rest of the conference's members have voiced their goal of breaking through and taking the next step toward the top, only to come up short in the end. Sendek almost set himself up for the same trap at the WCC Media Day in October, but three weeks into the 2023-24 season have proven the Broncos could be a legitimate threat to the conference's top dogs.
"We've been sitting in that next neighborhood and it's now incumbent upon us to take that next step in our league," Sendek said to The Field of 68 during WCC Media Day.
So far, the Broncos have done it. Sitting at 7-1, Sendek's crew sits atop the WCC standings with a pair of wins away from home over Pac-12 teams Stanford and Oregon. Fifth-year senior Carlos Marshall Jr. is making his case to be all-WCC by the end of his career, as he leads the team in scoring with 15.6 points per game. Arizona transfer Adama-Alpha Bal has been a welcomed addition, especially in the win over the Ducks with 25 points on 10-for-14 shooting from the field. Christoph Tilly also came up big in the victory, as the 7-footer is third on the team in scoring at 10.1 points per game.
Only Gonzaga has more victories over top-100 ranked KenPom teams, and while the Broncos' body of work against lesser opponents doesn't necessarily compare as a whole, they've taken advantage of their opportunities in nonconference play. And there will be plenty of chances to boost the NCAA Tournament resume, with five of their last seven non-league opponents ranking as top-100 KenPom teams: New Mexico, which trumped Saint Mary's earlier this season, Utah State, Washington State in the Jerry Colangelo Classic, Duquesne and Ivy League favorite Yale to close out nonconference play.
In fact, the month of December should reveal a lot about the WCC's hierarchy before league play starts.
The Bulldogs have four opponents in KenPom's top 60 teams over the next four weeks, highlighted by the two programs that competed for the NCAA National Championship last season — UConn (No. 3 in KenPom) in Seattle and San Diego State (18th) at home on Dec. 29. They also have two Pac-12 foes in USC (30th) on Saturday and at Washington (59th) a week later. Tune-ups against Arkansas Pine-Bluff (Dec. 5) and Mississippi Valley State (Dec. 11) are sandwiched between high-profile matchups.
Meanwhile, San Francisco has a chance to come out of its nonconference slate with 12-14 wins based on KenPom's projections. The Dons are away at Arizona State (98th) on Sunday, a game the metrics favor the Sun Devils in, before games against Vanderbilt (192nd), New Orleans (284th) and Seattle (143rd). Then they'll travel to the Delta Center in Utah to take on Utah State, which quietly has one of the top players in the country in Great Osobor, a 6-foot-8 Montana State transfer averaging 21.0 points, 10.4 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game while shooting 64.0% from the field.
That matchup between Osobor and San Francisco's Jonathan Mogbo should be an interesting one to track. Mogbo, a 6-foot-8 Missouri State transfer, leads the Dons in scoring with 15.7 points to go with 9.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.9 steals per game.
Of all the WCC teams in need of a boost, Saint Mary's might be the most desperate to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive. The Gaels have dropped three of their last four games, including a loss at home to Weber State and wire-to-wire defeats against San Diego State and Xavier in Las Vegas. Monday's letdown against Utah may have pushed Saint Mary's onto the bubble, and with two more quality games against Boise State (86th) and at Colorado State (25th), it's nearing desperation time in Moraga.
"People questioned Saint Mary’s because they would play an easy nonconference schedule," Dan Dickau said on a Gonzaga Nation episode. "And this year they scheduled appropriately. They scheduled some really good opponents that would be looked at as great wins in the nonconference and unfortunately, it’s gone against them."
It's been a topsy-turvy run for the WCC as a whole in nonconference play. The league is 4-1 against the Pac-12 but has dropped games to opponents from the Big Sky, Horizon League and Western Athletic Conference. KenPom ranks the WCC as the ninth-best conference in the country and third among mid-majors. With a solid slate ahead for the league's top programs, the next month will reveal a whole lot about the WCC.
"All in all, the league has got some more opportunities coming up," Dickau said.
