NCAA Tournament seeding in flux after Gonzaga’s loss to Saint Mary’s

The Gonzaga Bulldogs won just over 90% of the games they played in the West Coast Conference, dating back to the start of the Mark Few era in 1999.

However, they close out their final regular season game with a loss, and it comes against the only team that ever consistently topped them - the Saint Mary's Gaels.

Randy Bennett's team used a massive second half to bury the Zags on Saturday night in Moraga, 70-59, giving them a share of the regular season title for the fourth year in a row.

While Gonzaga still holds the No. 1 seed in the WCC Tournament, this loss will have implications for the team when it comes to NCAA Tournament seeding.

Most bracketologists have Gonzaga as a No. 3 seed in March Madness, with an outside chance at climbing to the No. 2 line if they finished 31-2. That dream is over at this point, although a No. 3 seed is still at least in the picture - thanks to some other losses around college basketball this weekend.

Feb 28, 2026; Moraga, California, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs guard Davis Fogle (4) reacts after being charged with a foul against the St. Mary Gaels during the first half at University Credit Union Pavilion. | Dennis Lee-Imagn Images

Illinois, Purdue, and Iowa State were all projected No. 2 seeds in Joe Lunardi's updated bracketology on Friday, and all three lost over the weekend to Michigan, Michigan State, and Texas Tech, respectively.

That opens up space for some of the three seeds - likely Florida and Houston - to move up to the No. 2 line after they blasted Arkansas and Colorado, respectively, on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Kansas got throttled by Arizona, 84-61, on Saturday, which could push them from a projected No. 3 seed down to the No. 4 line. Arizona is a better loss for Kansas than Saint Mary's is for Gonzaga, but the Jayhawks have lost three of their last five and will now have a tougher path in the Big 12 Tournament - which could benefit the Zags.

Of course, Michigan State and Texas Tech - who are both hovering in the No. 4 seed range - picked up massive wins over top ten opponents, which further crowds the conversation around those 3/4 seeds.

However, despite closing the season with a loss, Gonzaga still boasts a very formidable NCAA Tournament resume. The Zags sit No. 12 at KenPom and No. 11 in Wins Above Bubble, a notoriously crucial metric highly valued by the selection committee. Both those numbers put them in the No. 3 seed range, while they remain top ten in the NET even after losing to the Gaels.

Feb 28, 2026; Moraga, California, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Graham Ike (15) goes up for a shot while being defended by St. Mary's Gaels center Andrew McKeever (45) during the second half at University Credit Union Pavilion. | Dennis Lee-Imagn Images

The Zags also have two opportunities in front of them in the WCC Tournament as well. Their first matchup will be on Monday, March 9, against the winner of the quarterfinals matchup between No. 4 Oregon State and whoever advances to face them, which could be any of No. 5 Pacific, No. 8 Washington State, No. 9 LMU, or No. 12 Pepperdine. That game will only be Quad 3 (or Quad 4) for Gonzaga, but if they win that game to advance to the WCC championship - which they have done every year since 1997 - they will likely play one of Saint Mary's or Santa Clara, likely giving them another Quad 1 opportunity with both teams currently top 50 in the NET.

A Gonzaga team that finishes 30-3, 7-2 in Quad 1 games, and in the top 12 at both KenPom and Wins Above Bubble would be REALLY hard to deny as a No. 3 seed - although at this point it will depend on how teams like Kansas, Texas Tech, Michigan State, and others finish up.

If the Zags lose again in the WCC championship, they are almost certainly ending up as either a No. 4 or No. 5 seed, which means a matchup against one of the No. 1 seeds in the Sweet 16 - a less-than-ideal scenario considering the quality of clubs like Duke, Michigan, and Arizona at the top.