Preview: Gonzaga returns home to host Pacific

With the first half of conference play in the books, it’s safe to say the Zags have reaffirmed what many suspected to start the season; they’re really freaking good. It didn’t take a rocket scientist to predict that back in October given the depth this roster boasted, which is arguably the most Mark Few has ever had at his disposal in his two decades at the helm. If anything, the only concern was finding enough minutes for everyone in the rotation, a problem that any coach in the country would gladly take on as their own.

Even so, games aren’t won on paper. Talent alone doesn’t translate to success, as many of the most coveted and prestigious programs that sit atop of recruiting class rankings struggle to put it all together on the court. College basketball is a wild, wild place as well, with each weekend bringing about unthinkable upsets that can make or break a program’s title odds.

To that point, the most impressive part about Gonzaga’s season encapsulates everything that the stats and advanced analytics show – consistency.

Of course, playing in the WCC, while much improved, doesn’t provide quality competition from a talent standpoint on a night-to-night basis. But beyond the scoreboard and stat sheet, the Bulldogs’ ability to stay mentally sharp from the opening tip to the final horn of a blowout is certainly worth noting. They can enter the locker room at halftime with a 20-point lead and extend it to 30 within the first few minutes of the second half, as momentum never seizes to leave their grasp.

A case can even be made that they get better over the course of a game. Over their last 10 games, Gonzaga has won by an average margin of 31.3 points (wow) and have shot better from the floor in the second half in five of those games. It might not be against premier foes, but the relentlessness that this team plays with cannot be overshadowed.

Thursday’s game against Pacific is no exception.

Losing Damon Stoudamire after five seasons in the head honcho’s chair has not bode well for the Tigers so far this season. Under “Mighty Mouse”, Pacific had been known for its competitiveness and physical play on defense while becoming a top 120 KenPom team in back-to-back years. He took home WCC Coach of the Year honors following a 23-10 mark in the 2019-20 season, the most wins the program enjoyed as a member of the conference.

The Leonard Petty-era has not gotten off to such a start, however. The defense hasn’t been the same, dropping from 98th in KenPom last year to 194th in 2022, as protecting the rim and getting back in transition has been an issue. Without Jordan Bell down low, the Tigers have allowed their opponents to convert nearly 60% of shots at the rim according to hoop-math, which ranks in the bottom 100 Division-I teams. Offensive woes haven’t helped either, especially when the defense can’t pick up the slack like in seasons past.

Even with Pierre Cockrell and Jeremiah Bailey sticking around in Stockton for another year, along with the influx of transfers, the Tigers sit near the bottom of the WCC standings at 2-6 in conference play. Despite the slow start, a strong finish to the regular season is still on the table with a win over BYU and a near upset over USC in the last two weeks. After Gonzaga, Pacific has LMU on its schedule twice, as well as Portland, San Francisco and San Diego.

One bright spot on offense throughout the season has been Utah State transfer, Alphonso Anderson. Pacing the team with 11.4 points per game, the senior can operate out of the post or spot up from deep, where he’s knocking down a respectable 35% of his attempts. His 22 points was nearly enough to pull off a stunner against USC, albeit the Trojans were without Isaiah Mobley.

Outside of Anderson, Cockrell helps churn the pot with his craftiness and playmaking abilities. While he doesn’t spread the floor for the Tigers, he does most of his damage in the pick-and-roll game and midrange area, where he’s attempted 52% of his shots from this season. Cockrell has a tight handle and adept at making the smart pass, as his 2.1 assist-to-turnover ratio rivals that of Andrew Nembhard among true point guards in the WCC.

But against the Zags’ improved defense, finding any room to operate will be limited for the Tigers’ two catalysts. All five starters for Gonzaga have locked in down the stretch, holding conference foes to less than 37.1% shooting from the floor to go along with eight steals.

And once Gonzaga is off and running, there’s no slowing it down.

The pick: Zags 93, Tigers 69

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