Preview: Bulldogs eye season sweep of Waves in Malibu

The two fastest offenses in the WCC go at it once again, but Gonzaga will be bringing a much-improved defense to the show this time around.

To no one’s surprise, Gonzaga has had its way with every WCC team it has faced this season. Outside of a few road bumps, namely Saint Mary’s, the Zags have coasted to 20- and 30-point blowouts throughout 2022 with little to no pushback from its opposition. The conference is still slated to have four representatives in March, with San Francisco and BYU holding on for dear life, but for any casual fan that turns on a Zags game, it doesn’t appear that way.

Wednesday’s bout with Pepperdine doesn’t help that case, either.

The 2021-22 campaign will be a forgettable one for Lorenzo Romar and the Waves (7-20, 1-11 WCC), who are staring at their worst season in four years. Despite great individual efforts from freshmen duo Houston Mallette (12.4 PPG) and Maxwell Lewis (11.0 PPG), not much has gone right for Pepperdine in what is surely a transition year at best. The loss of Colbey Ross still lingers with the program, as both the offense and defense have taken major steps in the wrong direction.

Still, the Waves have managed to keep their identity intact. After being KenPom’s 20th fastest team in the country last season, the pace has dipped slightly, but a quarter of their shot attempts have come in transition. According to hoop-math, Pepperdine is second only to Gonzaga in the WCC when it comes to creating fast break opportunities but capitalizing at a sub-par rate (52% eFG, 102nd in the nation). Despite the inefficiencies, the Waves managed 20 fast break points against the Zags in the first meeting last month.

A repeat performance in Malibu is unlikely, however. As the young core of studs developed, Gonzaga’s defense has mightily improved throughout conference play, especially when it comes to slowing down opponents. Having an explosive offense certainly helps take the pressure off, but nonetheless, holding opponents to a 46.9% effective field goal rate in transition is quite a benchmark for the Bulldogs, who also have the best defensive efficiency rate in the WCC (.857).

Metrics aside, an eye test alone is telling of how far the team has come since the start of 2022. Andrew Nembhard and Anton Watson, both in the top seven among steal leaders in the WCC, take full advantage of careless passes and create extra possessions on offense. The value Hunter Sallis brings as a pestering defender off the bench cannot be overstated, while Chet Holmgren has asserted himself as one of the best rim protectors in the country. As the miscues and lapses become less frequent, the athleticism and versatility the team already possess makes it a formidable defensive unit come tournament time.

Until then, life for Pepperdine and the rest of the WCC is going to be miserable.

The pick: Zags 95, Waves 69