Why earning a No. 3 seed is critical for Gonzaga Bulldogs in NCAA Tournament

Mark Few and the Gonzaga Bulldogs finished the regular season with an excellent 28-3 overall record, earning the No. 1 seed in the WCC Tournament even after a season-ending loss to Saint Mary's in Moraga.

However, despite having their most successful regular season since 2021-22, Gonzaga is trending toward a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament - according to many Bracketologists.

Part of the issue for Gonzaga is a concentration of talent atop the college basketball world - while the team's disastrous Quad 3 road loss to Portland is dragging down what is otherwise a very strong resume.

Ultimately the Zags could play their way into a No. 3 seed if they win both games in the WCC Tournament, which would put them at 30-3 overall, 7-2 in Quad 1 games, and very likely inside the top ten in the NET, at KenPom, and in Wins Above Bubble - making them tough to deny as a top 12 team.

The difference between a No. 3 seed and a No. 4 seed may seem relatively minor, but with an extremely strong group of projected No. 1 seeds this season it is incredibly advantageous to avoid them as long as possible. The No. 4/5 seeds usually end up facing a No. 1 in the Sweet 16, while a No. 3 seed first faces a No. 2 seed - and doesn't have to beat the No. 1 until the Elite Eight.

The latest bracket projections from ESPN's Joe Lunardi and CBB Insider Andy Katz are both prime examples of the challenge a No. 4 seed presents for coach Few's club.

Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Graham Ike (15). | Photo by Myk Crawford

Lunardi dropped Gonzaga to the No. 4 seed in the East Region after the team's loss to Saint Mary's. He currently has them lining up against No. 13 seed UNC-Wilmington in the first round, with a second round battle against the winner between No. 5 Tennessee and No. 12 Yale.

Both those games are winnable for Gonzaga - even though Tennessee freshman Nate Ament is a matchup nightmare - but the real trouble is after that when the Zags would draw No. 1 seed Duke, barring a surprise upset.

Duke has been absolutely rolling as of late, sporting a 28-2 overall record including a neutral site win over Michigan back on Feb. 21. The Blue Devils are the undisputed top team in college basketball, led by star freshman Cam Boozer and a bevy of elite supporting cast members, including center Patrick Ngongba, sharpshooter Isaiah Evans, elite three-and-D wing Dame Sarr, and former Gonzaga recruiting target Nicholas Khamenia.

A fully healthy Gonzaga team with Braden Huff and Jalen Warley should get the Zags into the Sweet 16, but that Duke team is playing on another level right now and the athleticism, defensive prowess, and star power of Boozer make that an incredibly difficult matchup - for everyone.

Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Braden Huff. | Photo by Erik Smith

Meanwhile, Katz also has Gonzaga as a No. 4 seed, lining up in the West Region against No. 13 Utah Valley - the automatic qualifier out of the WAC.

The No. 5 vs No. 12 matchup is between St. John's and Liberty - potentially setting up a very fun Few vs Rick Pitino matchup. The Red Storm boast a formidable frontcourt featuring Zuby Ejiofor, Dillon Mitchell, and Bryce Hopkins, as well as point guard and Washington native Dylan Darling, making this a difficult potential round of 32 battle for the Zags.

If they do manage to advance, their reward is a likely date with longtime Gonzaga assistant coach Tommy Lloyd and No. 1 seed Arizona. While this would be perhaps the most anticipated Sweet 16 game of the year, it's a very, very tough matchup for the Zags thanks to Arizona's length, defensive versatility, and veteran guard play. Koa Peat, Brayden Burries, and Ivan Karchenkov form an elite trio of freshman starters, while big men Mo Krivas and Tobe Awaka are elite rebounders and defenders.

Toss in senior point guard Jaden Bradley and sharpshooting wing Anthony Dell'Orso and you have one of the deepest, most well-balanced teams in the country.

The No. 2 seeds are all obviously talented teams - with Florida, Houston, Illinois, Michigan State the projected quartet by both Katz and Lunardi - but those matchups are more winnable for Gonzaga than either Duke or Arizona would be. Michigan is the third No. 1 seed lock, and Zag fans don't need a reminder of how difficult that matchup would be for this team.

Gonzaga cannot completely control how the Selection Committee evaluates their resume, but it is reasonable to believe a No. 3 seed is well within reason if they win the WCC Tournament. A loss in the championship game makes that far less likely and instead puts the Zags in No. 4 or even No. 5 seed territory.

Gonzaga does not play again until Monday, March 9 in the WCC semifinals, giving Warley a chance to fully recover from his quad contusion. The Zags will tip at 6:00 PM PT against the winner of a quarterfinal matchup between No. 4 Oregon State and one of No. 5 San Francisco, No. 8 Washington State, No. 9 Portland, or No. 12 Pepperdine.