Will Gonzaga extend its Sweet 16 streak? 5 predictions for the 2023-24 season
With the 2023-24 college basketball season underway, it's time to look at the forecast for the Gonzaga Bulldogs.
Like the local weatherman, there's a high chance the following predictions won't come true by season's end, but that's just how it goes in a sport that revolves heavily around projections and rankings based on advanced metrics and eye tests. No matter what the numbers say, the unthinkable is bound to happen.
On top of computer analytics, there have been some early tells that could indicate how the new-look Bulldogs will fare in the post-Drew Timme era. A closed-door scrimmage against Baylor and an exhibition bout with Lewis-Clark State have given a baseline for expectations.
Here are five predictions for the Bulldogs this season.
GRAHAM IKE WILL BE A KARL MALONE AWARD FINALIST
Photo by Erik Smith, Myk Crawford
Graham Ike, the 6-foot-9 Wyoming transfer, was arguably one of the best power forwards in the country two seasons ago for a team that qualified for the NCAA Tournament. Ike didn't get a lot of national attention with the Cowboys, but he was named the preseason Mountain West Conference Player of the Year last season before sitting out with a lower leg injury. Now that he's healthy again, plenty of prognosticators will have a chance to see his prowess as a low-post scorer in an environment that heavily utilizes its big men.
Ike has already received recognition as one of the early candidates for the Karl Malone Award, which goes out annually to the best power forward in the nation at season's end. It's an extremely high honor given how many exceptionally talented and experienced big men there are in college basketball this season. Ike can solidify himself in that conversation as Gonzaga's leading scorer, though it might take some time as the coaching staff eases him back into playing shape.
Ike will have a chance to feast on the low block with essentially two point guards feeding him the ball. Ryan Nembhard has proven himself as one of the best floor generals in the game, while Nolan Hickman is capable of making the right decision in the pick-and-roll game. The surrounding cast makes it difficult for opposing teams to simply double-team Ike in the post, as Anton Watson looks to be a more aggressive scorer and Steele Venters is a sniper along the perimeter.
But all that talent creates a double-edged sword for this prediction. It's hard to stand out on a team that could likely have four or five players average in double-figures for scoring. Ike's more than capable of taking on a high usage rate (he was third in the country for percentage of possessions used in 2021-22 according to KenPom), though he probably won't be called upon as heavily as he was in Wyoming.
Still, if Ike is the leading scorer and rebounder for a fringe top-10 team in the country, he should earn some high praise by the end of the season.
RYAN NEMBHARD WILL BREAK THE PROGRAM ASSIST RECORD FOR A SEASON
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For those curious, the player who recorded the most assists in a single season at Gonzaga was Josh Perkins with 237 dimes during the 2018-19 season. If the Bulldogs can replicate their success last season with another appearance in the Elite Eight, that would mean Ryan Nembhard would have to average just over six assists in 2023-24. That shouldn't be too much of a stretch for arguably a top-10 or even top-5 point guard in the country, even if it is above his career-best of 4.8 assists per game.
Granted Perkins had the luxury of playing alongside two bonafide NBA talents in Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke, but Nembhard is leading quite the talented group himself this season. He'll have an array of pick-and-roll partners, from Ike and Watson to stretch bigs Braden Huff and Ben Gregg. That diversity in talent from the frontcourt, coupled with Nolan Hickman and Venters on the perimeter, should create a lot of opportunities for Nembhard to survey the floor and make the right decision.
Nembhard is a perfect fit in Gonzaga's ball-screen offense, which has ranked in the 90th percentile or better in four of the last five seasons per Synergy. He likes to play fast and historically so do the Bulldogs, especially with a guard that's as good of a rebounder as Nembhard has been. If he's able to secure the board defensively and get into the open court with a head of steam, he'll create a lot of three-on-twos and two-on-ones for Gonzaga in transition.
GONZAGA WILL FINISH TOP 3 IN OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY
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To say Gonzaga will have one of the most efficient offenses in the country isn't an outrageous statement if history means anything. The Bulldogs have been in the top five in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric for the last five seasons, and if the previous two predictions even come close to fruition, then they'll be near the top once again.
Gonzaga finished No. 1 in offensive efficiency in 2022-23 thanks in large part to Drew Timme's effectiveness on the low block, though the journey to the top wasn't easy. The Bulldogs had five games in the regular season against top-25 defenses according to KenPom, with four more added on between the WCC Tournament and NCAA Tournament. This season's slate doesn't project to be any more difficult from that standpoint, as the Zags are guaranteed four such matchups with the potential of six depending on the Maui Invitational.
The major obstacle, of course, is continuity. There were eight new players who logged minutes in the exhibition opener, and it's likely that Mark Few will have six newcomers in his rotation for the majority of the season. That's a lot of new faces to acclimate amid a tough nonconference schedule. But if any coach in the country can bring a group together, it is coach Few.
BRADEN HUFF, DUSTY STROMER WILL EARN ALL-WCC FRESHMAN HONORS
Gonzaga didn't turn heads with its 2022 and 2023 recruiting classes, but Huff and Stromer proved they can have significant impacts off the bench with their performances in the exhibition opener.
Huff, the former Mr. Basketball in the state of Illinois who redshirted last season, had 21 points and nine rebounds on 8-for-11 shooting from the floor against Lewis-Clark State. He looked comfortable with his back to the basket and as a stretch big who found open looks from deep, even if he didn't always capitalize. As long as he can have an impact defensively, that kind of versatility from the lefty off the bench will be a curveball for opponents to defend.
As for Stromer, he did everything Few asked of him against the Warriors. He finished with eight points, six rebounds, two assists and two blocks with zero turnovers. It will be interesting to see how he can impact the game on a nightly basis given his size and skillset at 6-foot-6. There will be plenty of opportunities for him to play a few different positions as a freshman, and he'll likely make the most of them on a talented team that needs its bench pieces to step up.
NINE STRAIGHT TRIPS TO THE SWEET 16
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The benchmark to measure Gonzaga's success is defined by the program's consistency in the NCAA Tournament, specifically its streak of Sweet 16 appearances. The Bulldogs have made it to the second weekend in eight straight postseasons, the third-longest streak ever. If everything goes as planned this season, it will be nine consecutive trips to the Sweet 16.
Granted a lot needs to work in the Zags' favor for that to happen. They'll have to survive a difficult nonconference slate, but if they can win four or even five games against top-25 opponents, that should warrant a high seed in the NCAA Tournament. A 14-2 or 15-1 record in WCC play can almost guarantee the league's regular season title as well.
For that to happen, it will come down to the newcomers. Nembhard is a brilliant playmaker, but there could be moments when he's called upon to be more of a scorer. He's risen to that challenge previously in his career.
Similarly, Ike will be relied upon to deliver down low. Venters will be making a big jump in terms of competition level. The trio of international talent has shown flashes but largely remain as unknowns to this point.
But this isn't Few's first time managing a new-look roster with this assortment of guards and forwards. The 2017-18 Bulldogs also had a two-guard lineup with Nigel Williams-Goss and Josh Perkins, a transfer from a power conference paired next to a third-year guard. The frontcourt of Jonathan Williams and Przemek Karnowski mirror the experience and skills of Ike and Anton Watson, while backups Gregg and Huff resemble Killian Tillie and Zach Collins, respectively.
It's not a one-for-one comparison throughout, but the blueprint is there. That team also started outside the top 10 in the AP Top 25 preseason poll. Without the pressure from the national media once again, the Zags could quietly climb the rankings before another deep postseason run.
Also, it's worth noting Gonzaga could be in Spokane for the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. ESPN's Joe Lunardi has the Zags playing in the Spokane Arena as the No. 3 seed in the South in his latest Bracketology update. If that ends up being the case, the road to a ninth straight Sweet 16 would be that much more favorable.
