Here Are Houston Cougars Chances of Getting Upset vs Idaho

There are always those Cinderella stories in March.

Could the Vandals be the program to pull off one of the biggest upsets that have ever happened in the first round of the NCAA Tournament?

Head coach Kelvin Sampson has been working his tail off to get this team back to the Final Four, and after the loss last season, it seems nearly impossible that he would let the last two appearances in the dance go down the way they have.

Luckily, he has a very strong offense and an even stronger defense, which have been the primary reasons Houston is in the position it is in today and the path to securing a win at Paycom Center.

Balanced Attack

𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐚𝐫𝐬 𝐯𝐬. 𝐕𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐥𝐬

Our road starts Thursday in Oklahoma City.#ForTheCity x #GoCoogs pic.twitter.com/6Szlpq1pH4
— Houston Men's Hoops 🏀 🐾 (@UHCougarMBK) March 15, 2026

Starting with the work that the Cougars have done on offense, there are not a lot of weaknesses that the roster has, except that there are primarily certain guys who see a lot more playing time than the rest of the bench, and getting production from everyone will quite possibly factor into advancing to the next round.

However, for Houston’s offense to get going, it will primarily revolve around getting the two veterans, Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp, and the two freshmen, Kingston Flemings and Chris Cenac Jr., going, because that is part of the identity of getting wins against tricky teams.

Throughout the season, Flemings has been one of the most impressive and intriguing players that the Cougars have had, and he is only in his first year playing collegiate basketball. The amount of work he has put in and the impact he has had on defenders have made him one of the best shooters the Big 12 and the entire basketball landscape have seen.

Many scouts have been checking out his skill set, which speaks to why he is one of the highly rated prospects going into the upcoming NBA Draft and why he is part of the path to victory. One notable problem coming into the first round is that he struggled against Arizona and wasn't playing as much. Does that carry over into the next contest?

Fortunately, there are other guys who have experienced the highs and lows of being in the dance, and Uzan and Sharp know exactly what it feels like to lose a heartbreaker. That’s another thing to take into account as to why this Cougars team has a path. Bad taste and getting revenge are going to fuel the seniors into having more confidence and momentum, which is why this team has it in their DNA to make it back to the championship and finish the job.

Besides Flemings, Uzan and Sharp are the only other two players averaging double digits, so getting these playmakers to heat up at the right time will steer this team to the Round of 32, as long as they avoid foul trouble and stick to trusting each other.

Houston is the No. 1 defense in the Big 12, and they are going to prove they can stop guys like Biko Johnson, Kolton Mitchell, Jackson Rasmussen, and Kristian Gonzalez. Flemings can not only shoot the ball. He can play defense, and his ability to steal the ball as the team leader in steals will be an interesting area to watch. Underneath has also been a big area where forward Joseph Tugler has stepped in at key moments, averaging 1.4 steals and 1.5 blocks.

The Cougars are also allowing opponents to score only 62.9 points per game and are 46.6 percent in opponent effective field goal percentage. In the rebounding department, Sampson’s group is also allowing only 10.9 offensive rebounds per game and 21.9 rebounds per game.

Offensively, Houston is registering 77.1 points per game and is +14.3 in average scoring margin, along with reeling in a total of 36.6 rebounds per game. From the field, they are shooting 45 percent and 34.9 percent from deep, while going 77.2 percent at the line.

As long as those numbers hold up and players stick to how they’ve played Cougar basketball, the sky is the limit in this contest with Idaho.