Five Things That Will Decide Houston vs. Southern

Here are five things that will determine the matchup.

Sep 5, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars wide receiver Amare Thomas (0) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the first quarter against the Oregon State Beavers at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

According to ESPN, the No. 22 Houston Cougars have a 99 percent chance of winning against the Southern Jaguars.

Although the odds are low for the Jaguars, Southern could still make the game closer than the Cougars would want it.

Here are five things that will determine the matchup between Houston and Southern.

1. Houston's Secondary

Sep 5, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars defensive back Jordan Allen (6) defends against a pass intended for Oregon State Beavers wide receiver Jesse Legree (12) during the third quarter at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Against Oregon State, Houston's secondary allowed multiple big plays, keeping the game close. Beavers quarterback Braden Atkinson had 376 passing yards and a touchdown. Wide receiver Jesse Legree had five catches for 136 yards and a touchdown, averaging 27.2 yards per catch.

The secondary faltered against the Beavers, so the deciding factor is whether the Cougars can limit the number of big plays the Jaguars have in this game. If Southern gets going in the passing game, Houston will have a harder time stopping the offense.

2. Stopping the Run Game

The Jaguars found a running back who could run the ball. Against Kentucky State, running back Trey Holly had 99 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries. Stopping the run game could pose a challenge for the Cougars.

However, Houston has been able to stop run games before. Oregon State ran the ball 25 times and only accumulated 26 yards. With linebacker Jaden Yates and a plethora of other run stoppers on defense, the run game will be an important piece to stop for Houston.

3. Houston's Ability to Run the Ball

In the last game, Houston ran the ball 41 times and had a total of 228 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Running backs Re'Shaun Sanford II and Makhi Hughes combined for 173 yards and two touchdowns.

They dominated the Beavers in the run game and could see similar results against the Jaguars. However, if Southern is able to limit this run game, quarterback Conner Weigman will have to rely more on the passing game.

4. Takeaways

The most realistic factor that could turn the tide of this game in Southern's favor is if the Jaguars create turnovers. Southern defensive back Tay James was able to return an interception for a touchdown against Kentucky State.

The Cougars turned the ball over twice with a fumble by Hughes and an interception by Weigman. Southern winning the turnover battle could give the Jaguars an upset win against Houston.

5. Getting Off the Field

Oregon State was 6-of-20 on third and fourth downs against Houston's defense. The Cougars were 8-of-14 on third and fourth downs. Houston's defense has the potential to limit the number of times Southern can convert on third and fourth downs; however, the concern comes when Houston can't.

If Southern can drive down the field and come out with a touchdown or field goal on the majority of its drives, the Cougars will have to quickly adjust before the Jaguars get moving.