Big Ten Basketball Tournament Prediction: Can Illinois Make a Run?

Round-by-round predictions, including a (surprising?) semifinal pairing, for the conference tournament in Indianapolis

Mar 7, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Tre White (22) drives the ball against Purdue Boilermakers guard C.J. Cox (0) during the first half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

With the Big Ten regular season having come to a close Sunday, the conference tournament bracket is set – and one squad appears to be the heavy favorite.

Separating itself from the pack, Michigan State finished with a 17-3 record in league play, with half the amount of conference losses compared to its closest challenger in Maryland (14-6 Big Ten).

But are the Spartans the pick to win the Big Ten Tournament title?

Or do Purdue, Wisconsin or Maryland string together a few wins and hoist the Big Ten championship?

Can peaking squads Oregon (seven straight wins) or Illinois (three game win-streak and now fully healthy) put up a challenge?

Here are our round-by-round predictions:

First Round

No. 10 Ohio State vs. No. 15 Iowa

The Pick: Ohio State

The Hawkeyes will put up 70-plus points – but allow even more.

No. 11 Rutgers vs. No. 14 USC

The Pick: Rutgers

Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper will be too much for the Trojans. 

No. 12 Minnesota vs. No. 13 Northwestern

The Pick: Northwestern

Nick Martinelli vs. Dawson Garcia, Round 2. Roll with Martinelli and the Wildcats again.

Second Round

No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 Indiana

The Pick: Oregon

The Duck’s are on a seven-game winning streak, and they'll extend it to eight against the Hoosiers.

No. 7 Illinois vs. No. 10 Ohio State

The Pick: Illinois

The Buckeyes' defense is no match for the Illini’s high-octane offense.

No. 6 Purdue vs. No. 11 Rutgers

The Pick: Purdue

The Boilermakers just steamrolled the Scarlet Knights 100-71 less than a week ago.

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 13 Northwestern

The Pick: Wisconsin

Badgers star John Tonje should have his way with the Wildcats.

Quarterfinals

No. 1 Michigan State vs. No. 8 Oregon

The Pick: Michigan State

Sparty will dominate the glass and snap the Ducks' streak.

No. 2 Maryland vs. No. 7 Illinois

The Pick: Illinois

Expect a finally healthy Illini frontcourt (Morez Johnson Jr. has been cleared to return) to slow down the Terrapins’ 1-2 big-man punch of Derik Queen and Julian Reese.

No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 6 Purdue

The Pick: Purdue

The Wolverines were fortunate to escape with a two-point win over the Boilermakers last month. That good fortune has run out.

No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 5 Wisconsin

The Pick: Wisconsin

High-level offense vs. high-level defense. Defense doesn't win a championship this time around. 

Semifinals

No. 1 Michigan State vs. No. 5 Wisconsin

The Pick: Michigan State

Michigan State's defense, on the other hand, will get them to the championship. 

No. 6 Purdue vs. No. 7 Illinois

The Pick: Purdue

The Illini never completely figured out how to stop the dynamic duo of Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn. 

Championship

No. 1 Michigan State vs. No. 6 Purdue

The Pick: Michigan State

Two of the greatest minds in college basketball – Tom Izzo and Matt Painter – battle for a Big Ten title. All hail Sparty.

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