Where Does Illinois' Brad Underwood Rank in KenPom's New Coaching Metric?

The answer will surprise Underwood's critics, and suggests that he may be a far better offensive tactician than he is usually redited for

Jan 30, 2025; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts after a call during overtime against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Pinnacle Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Illinois men's basketball coach Brad Underwood rarely gets the benefit of the doubt, let alone is singled out as a top strategist among his peers. His strengths as a college head man, most would admit, are considered to be his recruiting acumen and motivational ability. If there is a persistent knock on him, it's that he isn't much of a game coach.

But a new wrinkle in the statistical analytics model built by Ken Pomeroy – KenPom – seems to challenge that opinion. Added to the KenPom mix this season is a coaching element, as well as accompanying rankings that put Underwood at No. 11 overall among his Division I coaching peers.

Ken Pom is adding a coaching component to his preseason ratings and showed his top 25 coaches in the model, felt like some interesting names on here pic.twitter.com/nCR5rVb71b

— Cam Lemons Debro (@CamLemons_) October 10, 2025

A closer look at KenPom's coaching metric

It would be easy to mistake KenPom's coaches' metric as a ranking of how "good" college basketball's leading men are relative to one another. But it's not nearly that simple. Pomeroy described it carefully, if simply, in a recent post on his Bluesky social media account: "Here are the top 25 active coaches based on what they add to what is already captured by the model predictors." He added more context in a post on his Substack:

"We mentioned on Bluesky that we added a coaching component to this season’s recipe. And hoo-boy, did that get the measured reaction you’d expect from social media. Especially once the post made it’s way to [X] and Reddit. 'Kenpom’s best coaches,' the aggregators said. Um, no. We described exactly what it was in the Bluesky post: the top coaches based on what they add to what is already captured by the model predictors."

KenPom on his coaches' ratings. Always providing the nuanced and level-headed take. Thank you KP. pic.twitter.com/eAwJPV5QJ9

— Tanner McGrath (@tannerstruth) October 13, 2025

How KenPom's coaching metric reflects Underwood's value

KenPom is a smart dude, and we here at Illinois on SI were not handed the keys to this glorious bastion of Illini athletics journalism for our math-ing proficiency. But suffice to say that the KenPom coaching metric is meant to be something of a catch-all – designed to reflect the additive value, on the whole, that a coach brings to the sum of a program's already-assembled parts.

Vague? Absolutely. But Pomeroy said in his Substack post that he'll provide more explanation soon. In the meantime, his track record speaks for itself – the NCAA Tournament selection committee uses KenPom – and his coaching metric attempts to at least break down coaching value by offense and defense. Interestingly, it ranks Underwood No. 2 among all Division I coaches for added offensive value (behind only Louisville's Pat Kelsey), while ranking him No. 124 on the defensive side – a dynamic that plenty would have assumed was reversed.

In any case, with KenPom also slotting Illinois at No. 6 in its preseason team rankings – well above its No. 17 ranking in the AP Top 25, and on most pundits' personal lists – the numbers support the idea that both Underwood and the Illini probably both deserve a bit more respect than they are generally afforded.

Coach Brad throwing a fit?

…Never pic.twitter.com/Kz977z7Fmq

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) October 9, 2025