By the Numbers: Where Illinois Ranks in Key Metrics Entering Big Ten Play

In the present-day era of sports – which is dominated by endless quantitative data – too much stock can be put into the value of analytics, nearly all of which are termed “advanced." At the end of the day, the games must be played, and numbers are reflective but not predictive.

Admittedly, though, there are few better indicators of a college basketball club’s likely postseason success than advanced metrics models such as KenPom, Bart Torvik and NET. And that, of course, is exactly why all three of those analytical tools are used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee come March.

Here’s a quick look at where the Illini stand in each of those models heading into Big Ten play, along with a key number that leaps out from each (through the games of Monday, Dec. 29):

Illinois' analytics resume heading into Big Ten play

Dec 29, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell (4) lays the ball up during the first half against the Southern University Jaguars at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

KenPom: No. 9 overall (No. 3 offense and No. 25 defense)

Interestingly, despite Illinois’ supposed penchant for pushing the pace, this unit ranks No. 249 in the country in terms of adjusted tempo, per KenPom. Given the Illini’s wealth of athletes and gifted transition players – Andrej Stojakovic and Kylan Boswell, to name just two – it’s a bit of a shock to see such a limited number of transition attempts from them.

Andrej Stojakovic elevates for the jam 😳 @IlliniMBB

(via @CBBonFOX)pic.twitter.com/tGUAA8IIyh
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) December 29, 2025

Surely, the unexpected emergence of freshman guard Keaton Wagler (and subsequent relegation of open-floor maestro Mihailo Petrovic) has played a role in slowing down the Illini pace, given that Wagler has appeared most comfortable in halfcourt scenarios.

Bart Torvik: No. 10 overall (No. 4 offense and No. 24 defense)

Illinois’ Brad Underwood has always put an emphasis on rebounding – particularly on the offensive glass. His teams consistently rank near the top of the country in all rebounding statistics, but early in 2025-26, that trademark trait was nowhere to be found in the Illini’s biggest games – notably in losses against Alabama and UConn, not to mention a horrid showing on the glass vs. Tennessee (though Illinois managed to escape that contest with a win).

Still, the Illini appear to have gotten back on the right track – especially on the offensive glass – as Bart Torvik ranks their offensive rebounding percentage of 40.2 at 10th-best in the country.

NET: No. 10 overall

Among teams ranked in the NET top 10, Illinois is the only club with more than one loss – and Underwood’s unit has three. Each falter has come in a Quad 1 game, and, clearly the NET heavily "respects" the Illini's missteps, or they would have been punished more severely in the rankings. Also, Illinois' three Quad 1 victories – no team in the country has more than four – don’t hurt one bit.

What to know moving forward

Dec 9, 2025; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts to a call during the first half against the Ohio State Buckeyes Value City Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images | Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

In all three metrics, the Illini are the third-best Big Ten team, sitting behind only Purdue and Michigan – the latter of which ranks as the top squad in each of the analytical tools. Hovering in the 9-10 range, Illinois theoretically rates as a three seed in the NCAA Tournament for the time being.

But heading into Big Ten play, which will be loaded with Quad 1 opportunities and resume-strengthening contests, the Illini are in full control of their own fate. Put together a superb 18-game stretch in league play, and Illinois has the ability to creep into the top five of all metrics, perhaps earning a two seed in the Big Dance.

We've got your schedule all laid out for you. pic.twitter.com/CPNUvBgeQl
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) October 7, 2025

On the flip side, if the Illini fall in outings against the cream of the crop (Michigan, Purdue and Michigan State) and maybe drop another here and there, they may find themselves sliding all the way down to the five or six range – and, in turn, will be forced to face an exceedingly difficult route to Indianapolis come March.