ESPN's Analytics Identify Slight Favorite for Illinois-UConn Marquee Clash

After turning back UT Rio Grande Valley on Monday night, No. 13 Illinois (6-1) has wrapped up its “light” portion of the schedule – which still featured matchups against Texas Tech and Alabama – and now officially enters the gauntlet. First up: No. 5 UConn.

A quick glance at UConn

UConn's Alex Karaban, of Southborough, points to fans as he walks off the court after a game vs. BYU at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts on Saturday, Nov. 15, 2025. | Jason Snow / The Enterprise / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After a bit of a down season for the Huskies a year ago (24-11 and an eight seed in the NCAA Tournament), they have quickly reemerged as a national title contender in 2025-26, led by none other than two-time national champion Alex Karaban.

Although senior forward Karaban is arguably UConn’s most recognizable player, between the team’s style of play, Karaban’s unselfish play and his ability to thrive within the flow of the game, the Huskies are no one-man band. Returning guard Solo Ball (41.4 percent from deep in 2024-25) is a huge piece of UConn’s attack, as is Georgia transfer Silas Demary Jr. And, of course, Dan Hurley runs the show and is the mastermind behind the Huskies’ absurdly efficient – and beautiful to watch, might we add – offense.

The top-15 clash is set for Friday (11:30 a.m. CT, FOX) on the most prestigious stage in the sport: New York City’s Madison Square Garden. Between Illinois’ recent history at the Garden (including last season's program-worst loss to Duke), not to mention its previous matchup with UConn (a 77-52 loss in the 2024 Elite Eight), it’s safe to say the Illini are seeking to set a handful of manners right.

ESPN's matchup predictor makes its pick for Illinois-UConn

Nov 23, 2025; Hartford, Connecticut, USA; UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley watches from the sideline as they take on the Bryant Bulldogs at Peoples Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Is karma – not to mention a top-notch resume-building win – in the cards for Illinois? Well, ESPN’s analytics say no – but only by the slightest of margins.

ESPN’s matchup predictor identifies the Huskies as the favorite, giving them a 54.7 percent chance of successfully defending their home away from home. Still, with the Illini projected to have a 45.3 percent chance at victory, the game is practically a toss-up.

Is it a fair assessment?

Nov 22, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts during the second half against the Long Island University Sharks at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

In college basketball, anything can happen on a given night (or afternoon, in this case). But if these squads were to meet 100 times on a neutral court, the final result would probably hover quite close to 50 wins apiece. UConn and Illinois get it done in different ways – the Huskies have a high-powered offense predicated on endless movement, both from their players and the ball, while the Illini target isolation situations and dominate the glass – but the two teams are undoubtedly well-matched.

Yet considering this game is a de facto home game for UConn (MSG is referred to as "Storrs South" in Huskies circles), despite it officially being categorized as a neutral-site meeting, it’s hard not to give a slight edge to Hurley and his crew.