ESPN Analytics Pick Favorite in Illinois vs. Alabama Big Ten-SEC Showdown

The Illini and Crimson Tide will face off at the United Center in Chicago on Wednesday night. Who is expected to add a top-25 win?

Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood watches the action Friday, March 14, 2025, in a quarterfinals game at the 2025 TIAA Big Ten Tournament between the Maryland Terrapins and the Illinois Fighting Illini at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. | Grace Smith/IndyStar/USA TODAY NETWORK / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

No. 14 Illinois (4-0) already has a stellar non-conference win to its name (an 81-77 victory over No. 11 Texas Tech last Tuesday, but is seeking to add another this Wednesday against No. 8 Alabama.

Highlights of our 81-77 victory at State Farm Center over No. 11 Texas Tech. pic.twitter.com/kJTJMxuIsn

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) November 12, 2025

Meanwhile, Nate Oats’ club also has a massive triumph on its resume, as Bama took down St. John’s in New York City just over a week ago. But unlike the Illini, the Crimson Tide have a blemish on their record, which came in their most recent outing – an 87-80 loss against No. 2 Purdue in Tuscaloosa.

Illinois and Alabama are now set to meet in Chicago at the United Center in a matchup that will undoubtedly be categorized as a Quad 1 game come Selection Sunday. 

ESPN predicts Illinois vs. Alabama

Nov 13, 2025; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama head coach Nate Oats lobbies a ref for a call during the game with Purdue at Coleman Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News | Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

So, which team is the favorite for this potential Final Four-level clash in the Windy City? Well, per ESPN’s analytics, the Illini are expected to pull off the win in their home state, as the Basketball Power Index metric gives them a 57.5 percent chance of taking down the Crimson Tide.

Where are Illinois and Alabama ranked in ESPN’s BPI?

The metric has Brad Underwood’s club at No. 13, while Alabama slides in at the No. 25 spot. Interestingly, both squads have a top-10 remaining strength of schedule, with the Crimson Tide laying claim to the toughest schedule in the country and the Illini having the sixth-most difficult slate ahead.

Not only does each team play in one of the two premier hoops conferences in the country (the Big Ten and SEC), but each head coach has put together grueling non-conference slates, with Alabama certainly having the toughest in the nation. (The Crimson Tide still have No. 19 Gonzaga and No. 5 Arizona on the docket.)

Illinois, for its part, still has outings against No. 3 UConn and No. 20 Tennessee – both of which are technically neutral-site outings but will feature testy, road-like environments (UConn in New York City and Tennessee in Nashville).

Is ESPN’s assessment fair – should Illinois be favored?

A neutral site by name but not in reality, Chicago’s United Center is essentially State Farm Center 2.0. Expect the venue to be filled to the brim with orange and blue on Wednesday night, giving the Illini a pseudo-home-court advantage.

And given that Illinois and Alabama are relatively well-matched, it appears the crowd may be enough of a factor to hold some sway. Still, it's basically considered a coin flip.