ESPN Matchup Predictor Picks Favorite for Illinois at Purdue

Ever since the release of Illinois’ Big Ten schedule, the date Jan. 24 has been circled, highlighted and starred on everyone’s calendar. The expectation was that the day may ultimately decide the outcome of the Big Ten regular-season championship.

Fast-forward to today, and although some unexpected situations have unfolded across the league – notably the dominance of still-undefeated Nebraska – this lone Illinois-Purdue clash still figures to be crucial in determining the top of the league standings. And with both clubs sitting at 7-1 in conference play, Saturday's matchup (2 p.m. CT, FOX) still looms as a possible final factor in crowning the regular-season winner.

Illinois or Purdue? ESPN metric is leaning in one direction

Jan 17, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood before the first half against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

So which club is expected to leave Mackey Arena with its eighth Big Ten win of the year? According to ESPN’s matchup predictor, it’s (perhaps unsurprisingly) the home team.

The metric gives Purdue a 64.1 percent chance of staving off Illinois – and, it's worth noting, that number doesn’t appear to take into account the absence of Illini guard Kylan Boswell.

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, which the matchup predictor is based on, rates Purdue as the No. 7 team in the country and Illinois at No. 9. Interestingly, both squads have nearly identical chances of winning the Big Ten. (Purdue has a 28.8 percent chance, while Illinois has a 26.3 percent chance.)

Naturally, the analytical tool also incorporates home-court advantage into its process – hence the Boilermakers’ 64.1 percent chance of successfully defending Mackey.

Is it a fair assessment?

Jan 14, 2026; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter points to the court during the second half against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Illinois and Purdue – which are the No. 1 and No. 2 offenses in KenPom, respectively – are juggernauts on offense, and each is at least fairly sound defensively.

The rivals score in different ways (Illinois’ offense is often based on matchup-hunting, whereas Purdue thrives in the pick-and-roll), but as the numbers reflect, each is quite dominant in their own way.

On a neutral floor, the matchup would be a toss-up. But this contest takes place in West Lafayette and Illinois is down its veteran leader in Boswell, who impacts the game in a seemingly infinite number of ways.

Given the Illini’s offensive firepower, they should survive on that end (as we saw Wednesday night vs. Maryland). Defense, though, may be another story. Still, if Andrej Stojakovic can find ways to keep Purdue’s Braden Smith in front, fight over the top of screens and bother the elite lead guard with his length, the Illini may find themselves in position to steal a huge road victory.

Then again, Smith is the best player in the country for a reason. He finds ways to impact the game regardless of the player checking him. With that in mind, it’s impossible not to lean the Boilermakers’ way – although an Illini upset certainly isn’t out of the realm of possibility.