ESPN Metric Tabs Favorite in Illinois vs Iowa Top-25 Clash

Based purely on paper, the favorite for No. 16 Illinois (12-3, 3-1 Big Ten) at No. 19 Iowa (12-3, 2-2 Big Ten) appears to be fairly straightforward. Three measly spots apart in the AP poll is all-but trivial – especially when taking home-court advantage in the Big Ten into account.

Iowa should be expected to win this game. Right? Wrong. The AP poll is, as we’ve said many times before, essentially meaningless. The reality is Illinois is, by a healthy margin, a more complete team than Iowa on both sides of the floor – particularly on the offensive end.

But, to clarify, the Hawkeyes are no slouches. Head man Ben McCollum is doing a phenomenal job in his first season in Iowa City (there’s a reason he only made a one-year pit stop at Drake) and Iowa has one of the best players in the conference in lead guard Bennett Stirtz – a projected first-round draft pick.

Defensively, Iowa is superb. The benefit of McCollum bringing players from Drake has been crystal clear. Despite it being his first year at Iowa, his system is well-established and runs exceptionally smooth.

ESPN's analyticals reveal favorite for Illinois vs. Iowa Big Ten showdown

Jan 6, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Ben McCollum reacts during the first half at Williams Arena against the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images | Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Even pairing that with Iowa’s home-floor advantage, though, you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone, or anything, picking the Hawkeyes as the favorite heading into Sunday (11:00 a.m. CT, FOX). ESPN’s matchup predictor seconds that notion, giving Illinois a 57.5 percent chance of walking into Carver-Hawkeye Arena and taking down Iowa.

Is the assessment fair?

The Hawkeyes, on the heels of a loss at Minnesota, will surely have a scorching-hot fire lit under them via McCollum. They’re yet to lose a game in Iowa City this year (but their toughest foe has been a down UCLA club).

MINNESOTA UPSETS NO. 19 IOWA 💥 pic.twitter.com/I9w2BtOh3t
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) January 7, 2026

Aside from a dud at Michigan State (the Hawkeyes fell 71-52), Iowa hasn’t lost a game by more than four points. The defensive prowess of McCollum’s unit ensures the Hawkeyes stay within striking distance.

But Illinois’ defense is operating at its highest level, and it appears as though Brad Underwood’s squad is actually poised (for once) to put together a gameplan to remove a team’s opposing star. And if the Illini manage to take Stirtz out of the game – even somewhat – the Hawkeyes have no offensive answers.

Meanwhile, Illinois has a laundry list of options that can fill it up in the blink of an eye. A better rounded club that just so happens to be playing its best ball of the season, the Illini enter this matchup as the clear favorite – and a relatively heavy one at that.