ESPN Predictor Names Clear Favorite in Illinois vs UConn Final Four Clash

Back on Black Friday last year, while the nation was wrapped up in a holidays shopping craze, UConn was busy dismantling Illinois at New York City's Madison Square Garden – a contest Illini fans would prefer to forget. After the Huskies leapt out to a 43-32 advantage at the break, they kept their foot on the gas, never letting Illinois inch any closer than just outside striking distance, ultimately leaving the Big Apple with a 74-61 victory.

UConn dominated that outing in every facet imaginable. There was no doubting which squad was superior at that juncture of the season. Fortunately for Illinois, it’s no longer November, and at this point, an early-regular-season loss amounts to nada.

ESPN metric reveals favorite in Illinois vs UConn Final Four showdown

Mar 29, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley looks on against the Duke Blue Devils in the first half during an Elite Eight game of the East Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

All that matters now is Saturday night (5:09 p.m. CT, TBS) in Indianapolis. And this time around, the expectation isn’t a double-digits Illini loss. In fact, it’s anything but. Per ESPN’s matchup predictor, Illinois has a 59.0 percent chance of staving off UConn and punching its ticket to the national title game. So why is the pendulum leaning in Illinois’ direction – and is it a fair assessment?

Is ESPN’s prediction for Illinois vs UConn in the Final Four spot on?

The No. 1 reason the Illini are the team to beat this time around: Keaton Wagler. It's not that Wagler wasn't available back in November – he was just a different creature altogether in the Illinois lineup. After playing all of 14 off-ball minutes and scoring just three points in the first go-round against UConn, Wagler was thrust into a lead guard role following this contest. He hasn’t been held to a single-digit scoring outing since.

Illinois shot 19-for-60 (a season-low 31.7 percent) from the field in that loss. Fast-forward to the present-day, when the Illini have the No. 1 offense in the nation, led by an All-American in Wagler, and a coach in Brad Underwood who is suddenly making savvy in-game adjustments and pushing all the right buttons for the Illini.

The other notable shift: defense. Although this development only recently occurred (as in, during the NCAA Tournament), it’s of equal importance. Illinois, which entered the Big Dance as a team characterized by its ability to “keep up” with anyone given the explosive offense, is now suffocating teams on the other end while continuing to pour it on offensively. As a result, the Illini have won every game by double digits.

Meanwhile, UConn escaped Michigan State (nearly squandering a 19-point lead) in the Sweet 16 before climbing back out of its own 19-point hole in a miraculous comeback against Duke in the Elite Eight. Dan Hurley's club lost both of those games on the glass, and survived in the latter solely due to its ability to turn the Blue Devils over.

Illinois has all of the tools – physicality and ball protection, namely – to make life difficult for UConn, and it should do just that on Saturday night.