Is Illinois the Top National Title Contender After Dismantling Houston in Sweet 16?

One month ago to the day, Michigan and Morez Johnson Jr. came into Champaign and sent a clear message: Illinois did not belong in the top tier of college basketball.

Sure, the Illini, with their explosive offense, were capable of beating anyone in the country – but it would take a scorching-hot performance from long range and a comprehensive, never-before-seen defensive performance. The odds of both occurring on the same night, let alone over the course of multiple games – a requirement to win a national championship – appeared to be slim to none.

Fast-forward to the present day, and the discussion has shifted. The question now: Is Illinois college basketball's top national title contender?

Is Illinois the national title favorite after beating Houston in Sweet 16?

Mar 26, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) and guard Andrej Stojakovic (2) reacts after the game in a Sweet Sixteen game of the South Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Offensively, the Illini have the second-most efficient unit in the nation this season (per KenPom). For the majority of the year, it has been considered by most to be the best in the sport. The five-out scheme is superb with shooters across the board, all of whom are high-IQ, selfless players with dynamic skill sets. The pieces are elite – and the fit is even better.

And after taking it straight into the jaws of a scary Houston defense in the second half on that end (scoring 41 points in the second frame), it’s pretty clear Illinois’ offense already puts it on the short list of contenders.

As for the other end, the Illini have (startlingly) flipped the narrative during the NCAA Tournament. There have been games this year in which Illinois displayed thoroughly impressive defense, but never against high-quality foes and never for more than stretches.

But in the Round of 32 against VCU and the Sweet 16 against Houston, the Illini defense was spectacular. Desire, focus, communication – all of it was present in spades. And Illinois, with its nation’s-best size and brilliant basketball minds, has the tools to be stifling on that end. We knew that. To see it for 40 straight minutes against a pair of stellar offenses, however, was a sight for the sore eyes of Illini fans and a tremendously unwelcome sight for anyone in Illinois’ path.

Let’s put it in perspective using the advanced numbers: Per Bart Torvik, Illinois’ adjusted defensive efficiency against VCU was 78.9, and that figure was 82.3 against Houston – which averaged out to 80.6. A small sample size, yes, but let’s roll with it for this exercise.

Over the course of the season, Duke’s defensive efficiency ranks No. 1 on Bart Torvik, at 91.7. (To clarify, a lower number is better.) The disparity between that figure and Illinois’ VCU/Houston number is 11.1. That's greater than what separates the Blue Devils’ defense and the No. 66 defense in the country (UC San Diego).

Put plainly: Illinois isn’t just playing its best basketball of the season; it’s also playing better basketball than any other team in the country has this season – at least on the defensive end. (And, mind you, that’s supposed to be the Illini’s worse half.)

Toss in Illinois’ exceptional glass-cleaning ability and Brad Underwood coaching at a higher level than he ever has in Champaign – both of which have played a role in the defensive shift – and this current Illini team is extremely dangerous.

A valid argument could be built for both Arizona and Michigan owning the title of “team to beat," but through three NCAA Tournament games thus far, there hasn’t been a better overall unit than Illinois – and there’s no compelling reason to believe that it can't hold true for three more games.