Breaking Down Illinois Basketball's Path to a Big Ten Tournament Title

With the Big Ten regular season coming to a close, we can now plot the Illini's path to a conference tournament title

Mar 7, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini fans cheer during the first half against the Purdue Boilermakers at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

The last games of the Big Ten's 2024-25 regular season went in the books Sunday, locking in the final conference standings, settling the seedings for the Big Ten Tournament and issuing each team's unique road map to a conference title and an automatic bid in the NCAA Tournament.

None of the Big Ten Tournament contenders are sweating an invite to the NCAAs, but everyone has a vested interest in optimizing their tournament seed, draw and Regional site, in addition to peaking at the perfect moment – which is close at hand.

Illinois proved as much last season, when it won a Big Ten Tournament title and kept on streaking all the way into the Elite Eight, stopped only by eventual NCAA champion UConn. Do the Illini (20-11, 12-8 Big Ten) have another run in them this season? If so, the real work starts Thursday in Illinois' opener at the Big Ten Tournament, at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Let's engage in a bit of game theory and see just what a tourney title wlll take for the Illini:

The road to the championship is set. pic.twitter.com/BRzNFMmK26

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 9, 2025

Second Round: Thursday, Game 6 (6:30 p.m. ET, on BTN)

Seventh place in the Big Ten regular-season standings earned Illinois a No. 7 seed and a first-round bye in the conference tournament, so the Illini will play the winner of Wednesday's Iowa-Ohio State first-rounder. The good news: Illinois has wins over both the 15th-seeded Hawkeyes and 10th-seeded Buckeyes this season, and match up well with both clubs.

Iowa is limping to the finish line and is ready to be put out of its season-long misery. Ohio State put up a far nastier fight against Illinois back in early February, but that also came in the midst of the Illini's injury and illness issues – and before their recent defensive adjustments, which should prevent Buckeyes guards Bruce Thornton, John Mobley Jr. and Devin Royal from catching fire again.

Quarterfinals: Friday, Game 10 (6:30 p.m. ET, on BTN)

If the Illini win their second-round game, they would face what may be the pivotal matchup in their draw. No. 2-seeded Maryland, which received a double-bye into this game, handed Illinois its second-worst loss of the season (after the Duke nightmare) back in January.

Remember, center Tomislav Ivisic was on the shelf (ankle) and the Illini were still fighting off the flu bug when they tumbled against the Terps. But even with the Illini at full strength, there is no getting around – figuratively and almost literally – Maryland big men Derik Queen and Julian Reese.

Two keys: 1) Will Morez Johnson Jr. be available and able to contribute, and 2) will coach Brad Underwood be prepared with a viable game plan to slow Queen and Reese? The Illini had their moments doubling the post Friday against Purdue, but Trey Kaufman-Renn's 29 points wasn't exactly an encouraging sign.

Semifinals: Saturday, Game 13 (approximately 3:30 p.m. ET)

If Illinois can hold off Maryland, a Big Ten Tournament title suddenly appears within arm's reach. In Saturday's semis, the Illini would most likely face third-seeded Michigan or sixth-seeded Purdue – the opponents they knocked off in their last two regular-season games. They're a lock for the final, yeah?

Uh-uh, not by a long shot. These Illini are streaky, and it's easy to forget in the aftermath how close they came to falling under the Boilermakers' wheels – and in Champaign. A win over Michigan seems more repeatable, but if it were that easy, our little thought experiment would have been over a round ago – when Illinois would have no theoretical chance of pushing past Maryland. But wins over the Boilers and Wolverines are, if nothing else, allow the Illini to play with the confidence that it can be done again.

Final: Sunday, Game 14 (3:30 p.m. ET, on CBS)

A lot can happen between now and Sunday, but let's not kid ourselves: Big Ten regular-season champion Michigan State isn't letting anyone on its side of the bracket – as close to a cakewalk as you'll get in this league – get between them and the final. Sparty defeats against USC and Indiana now look like glitches in the Matrix, and even a loss to UCLA – by two points, in Los Angeles – feels like ancient history.

And although Illinois has lost twice to Michigan State this season – 80-78 in East Lansing back in January and 79-65 in Champaign less than a month back – Spartans coach Tom Izzo would likely agree that no team has played his group harder or poses MSU a greater danger than the Illini.

Illinois will need good health and its full complement of rotation players – including Johnson – and, ideally, more than nine minutes out of Kasparas Jakucionis. But when whole, the Illini have the size and muscle to match the gritty, physical Spartans, as well as the individual matchups (and seemingly the defensive adjustments) to hit them hardest at their weak point – in the halfcourt offense.

And if Illinois simply hits a run-of-the-mill 1 of every 3 three-pointers it launches (rather than the combined 12-for-57 – 21.1 percent – it shot in its two losses to MSU), the Illini can chug Yoo-hoo from the Stagg Trophy every mile along Interstate 74 back to Champaign.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Purdue Coach Matt Painter Sets the Bar for Illinois in March

CBS' Jon Rothstein Reports Update on Availability of Morez Johnson Jr.

Illini Coach Brad Underwood Addresses Run-In With Ref in Purdue Game