What Seed Will Illinois Basketball Land in the NCAA Tournament?

The Illini, who were peaking before Friday's blowout loss to Maryland, appear to be a wild-card seed in the Big Dance

Mar 14, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell (4) scores past Maryland Terrapins center Derik Queen (25) during the second half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

After seventh-seeded Illinois turned in a disheartening effort in a loss to second-seeded Maryland in Friday's Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal, all focus turn towards Selection Sunday, when the Illini – and the rest of the college basketball world – will hear their NCAA Tournament fate decided.

B1G MAN 3

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— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 14, 2025

Although the Illini (21-12, 12-8 Big Ten) can be sure their name will be called Sunday, their specific seed line remains a topic of hot debate.

So let’s take a deep dive into the numbers, best wins, worst losses and current projections from the top college basketball bracketologists to make our best educated guess at the Illini’s likely NCAA Tournament positioning.

Metrics

NET

Illinois is ranked 17th in the NET Rankings, with eight Quad 1 wins and just two losses outside of Quad 1. The Illini’s NET resume would theoretically have them teetering on the edge of 4- and 5-seed territory.

KenPom

Slotted at 20th overall in KenPom, Illinois’ offense continues to impress (15th in the country), while its recently porous defense, which was on full display in the Big Ten Tournament (91.0 points allowed per game), free-fell all the way to 41st. KenPom’s metrics would have the Illini sitting firmly on the border between a 5 and 6 seed. 

Best wins

Illinois did much of its best work at the start and then at the tail end of the season, thrashing Oregon 109-77 on the road in early January, beating Wisconsin 86-80 at home in December, handling Missouri 80-77 in St. Louis in December and then taking recent back-to-back wins over Michigan (93-73) on the road and Purdue (88-80) at home to close out the regular season.

Worst losses

With a pair of Quad 2 losses on their resume, the Illini saw their most unsightly blemishes come during a 5-8 patch in January and February, which included a loss on the road to Rutgers (82-73) and the anti-masterpiece – an 82-72 home loss to USC.

Current projections

Illinois is facing a wide range of projections from the main trio of bracketology experts. CBS’ Jerry Palm has the Illini as low as an 8 seed, while FOX’s Mike DeCourcy is a bit higher on them (7 seed) and ESPN’s Joe Lunardi seems most confident in the selection committee’s impression of the Illini, slotting them as a 6 seed.

Illinois on SI prediction

Although stellar metrics make a legitimate case for a 5 seed for the Illini, an up-and-down season has resulted in Illinois being viewed as a March Madness wild card. A tough team to pinpoint, the Illini figure to land anywhere from a 6 to an 8. But with a handful of excellent wins – including one that came on the road and another at a neutral site – the Illini are deserving of more than an 8 seed. Even a 7 feels a touch low, though its understandable why the Duke and Maryland losses would give pause.

But if the selection committee places as much value on the metrics as it claims to, the Illini should land a 6 seed when the NCAA Tournament brackets are announced Sunday.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Illinois Face-Plants Against Maryland in Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinal

Social Media Sounds Off as Maryland Drubs Illinois in Big Ten Tournament

3 Key Numbers From Illinois' Loss to Maryland at the Big Ten Tournament