Illinois Has One Dream Opponent Left in NCAA Tournament

The Sweet 16 has arrived in fairly undramatic fashion. Save for No. 9 seed Iowa toppling No. 1 seed Florida, there hasn’t been much chaos in the bracket thus far, and it remains quite a chalky field through one weekend. With that in mind, there aren’t many teams Illinois “wants” to see, but there is one squad that the Illini may not mind running into – and one they certainly want to avoid.

Why Illinois would welcome another rematch with Nebraska

Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood watches as his team plays March 21, 2026 during the first half of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament second round game against VCU at the Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. | Ken Ruinard / USA Today Network South Carolina / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

But didn’t Nebraska beat Illinois in Champaign? Yes, the Cornhuskers did – and flamethrower Pryce Sandfort ensures they're capable of doing it again. But to see Nebraska in the Elite Eight would arguably be a dream scenario for Illinois.

Fred Hoiberg’s unit is so tough defensively because it rolls out such a unique scheme – one that requires experience against it to be prepared. The Illini have a lot of that, and they showed exactly what they’re capable of the second time around with a win in Lincoln (splitting the regular-season series 1-1).

Also, from a defensive perspective, Nebraska is a manageable matchup for Illinois. Wing Andrej Stojakovic is capable of running Sandfort off the line, and the Illini’s rim protection – which has thrived of late – keeps the Cornhuskers out of the paint, forcing them to rely on deep balls from Sandfort’s supporting cast.

Although Iowa might seem the appropriate team to put in this spot, the undersized Hawkeyes just played the nation’s top rebounding team – Florida – dead-even on the glass. And despite Bennett Stirtz having an extremely off night, they still prevailed against the highest seed in the South Region. Ben McCollum is a mastermind – and Illinois would prefer to avoid him at this point.

Why a matchup with St. John's could end Illinois' NCAA Tournament run

Mar 20, 2026; San Diego, CA, USA; St. John's Red Storm head coach Rick Pitino reacts in the second half against the Northern Iowa Panthers during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Viejas Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The first squad to come to mind in this slot is Houston. Unfortunately, there is now no avoiding the Cougars – who are the Illini’s Sweet 16 matchup. But if Illinois can escape them, along with the winner of Iowa-Nebraska, it may come face-to-face with St. John’s (although that would require a few upsets by the Red Storm).

On paper, a potential Final Four draw with a No. 5 seed would be an opportunity Illinois would relish. But it shouldn’t – at least not this one. The Johnnies boast one of the best defenses in the nation. Head coach Rick Pitino remains at the top of his game, as his Red Storm has a tremendous knack for speeding teams up with relentless ball pressure.

The only answer against this St. John’s defense: force the Johnnies to pay. In this hypothetical matchup, Illinois couldn’t just beat the pressure before going into its halfcourt offense, it must beat the press to score. Otherwise, the Red Storm would wear the Illini down all game long.

Thus far, Illinois has lived in the halfcourt and hasn’t had anything to show in terms of transition offense. The lack of fastbreak ability on the Illini roster – and, subsequently, being without the knack for punishing teams that pressure – would likely prove fatal against the Red Storm.