Why Illinois Fans Shouldn’t Overreact to Keaton Wagler’s Debut Performance

Illinois’ offseason was characterized by its decision to push all its chips into the international market. The Illini loaded up on overseas talent in Mihailo Petrovic (Serbia) and David Mirkovic (Montenegro) to pair with the Ivisic twins, Tomislav and Zvonimir (Croatia).

Yet it was an American-born prospect from the Sunflower State – Kansas – that seemingly stole the show throughout the summer and fall. In addition to rumors of his showing advanced progress in informal sessions, guard Keaton Wagler was publicly praised by Illini coach Brad Underwood and veteran teammate Kylan Boswell.

And Illini fans were eager, to say the least, to see the freshman phenom in action Sunday against Illinois State. But although Wagler’s final stat line was decent – nine points and two rebounds – his debut wasn't the sort of New Year's Eve Times Square Ball Drop celebration that had been expected.

Illinois' Keaton Wagler struggles vs. Illinois State

Aside from two three-pointers and a physical downhill bucket in the first half, Wagler seemed never to get comfortable against the Redbirds. His thin frame and strength deficit against older and more developed defenders showed as he consistently got knocked off his path attacking the basket. Whether or not it was related, he was extremely passive as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, failing to put much pressure on the defense.

Keaton Wagler nails one from behind the arc 👌

Subscribe/watch on B1G+ pic.twitter.com/6tuXfJhRc8
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) October 19, 2025

Will Riley reminds us why we can't put much stock in an exhibition game

No reason to fret, Illini fans. Let’s take a quick trip down memory lane – all the way back to Illinois’ 2024 exhibition outing against Ole Miss. Freshman Will Riley went a mediocre 2-for-8 from the field en route to a so-so seven-point, two-rebound showing – an eerily similar stat line to Wagler’s. We probably don't have to bother telling you the rest: A few days later, Riley exploded for 31 points in his official debut against Eastern Illinois.

That hardly guarantees that Wagler is due for a coming-out party against Jackson State in Illinois' Nov. 3 regular-season opener. But it does make one thing clear: Overreacting to a freshman debut in an exhibition game will get you got.

Wagler is simply getting his feet wet, easing himself into the Division I level. Especially with a player like Wagler – who relies more on his herky-jerky change of pace and overall craftiness than top-notch athleticism – it’ll take some time to adjust his game to the size and athleticism of Division I players.

Again, similar to Riley, Wagler doesn’t have a lightning-quick first step and doesn't jump out of the gym. At this level, defenders are stronger, quicker, longer and anticipate better – all of which resulted in Wagler’s vaunted driving ability all but disappearing Sunday.

But that doesn’t mean it’s gone for good. As we saw with Riley throughout last season, each passing game was a learning opportunity. For Wagler, the next few weeks of practice and the early months of the season will present him with the challenges he needs to keep sharpening the tools in his crafty bag.

🟠 Newcomer First Look 🔵
Keaton Wagler
Shawnee, Kan.
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) July 25, 2025

As the season progresses, Wagler will know exactly when to pull out the deceleration step, when to put his shoulder through a defender’s chest or when to toss up an arcing floater.

In the meantime, he'll be an effective catch-and-shoot threat, while also likely continuing to receive his fair share of opportunities working ball screens. Expect the 6-foot-6 freshman to be a valuable contributor as the season progresses, before developing into a bona fide playmaker – for himself and his teammates – down the stretch.