3 Bold Predictions for Illinois Basketball at Michigan State

Let's read the tea leaves for some unexpected insights ahead of the Illini's road game against the Spartans
Jan 14, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward Morez Johnson Jr. (21) rebounds the ball during the first half against the Indiana Hoosiers at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images
Jan 14, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward Morez Johnson Jr. (21) rebounds the ball during the first half against the Indiana Hoosiers at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Both No. 19 Illinois and No. 12 Michigan State are fairly predictable in their approaches to the game: "Here's what we do," each might say to the other. "Beat it if you can."

But this Big Ten season is already proving to be one of the topsy-turviest in recent memory, and something will have to give when the Illini (13-4, 5-2 Big Ten) square off with the Spartans (15-2, 6-0) in a matchup of similarities Sunday in East Lansing (11 p.m. CT, on CBS).

Here are three bold predictions to keep an eye out for in the Illini-Spartans game:

1. Illinois will be outrebounded

The Illini might have a bit more size and a higher rebounding margin than the Spartans (plus-12.4 compared to plus-10.3), but MSU – physical and athletic – lives and dies on the glass. And because coach Tom Izzo (who once suited up his Spartans in football gear to conduct his legendary War drill) knows Illinois is one of the few opponents capable of slaying his club on the boards, he will do everything in his power to have the Spartans prepared and focused on winning that battle.

2. Jaden Akins won't crack double-digit scoring

Akins, a 6-foot-4 senior guard and the Spartans' leading scorer, averages 14.2 points and is trouble for opponents whenever he finds a seam to the rim. But few, if any, backcourt defenders are as likely to neutralize an opposing scoring threat as Illini guard Kylan Boswell, and the fact that Akins shoots just 29.9 percent on threes (26-for-87 on the season) should allow Boswell to mostly focus on keeping him off balance with the ball in his hands and out of the paint. And given the excellent help of Illinois' defense and its emphasis on urging the ball into the hands of non-shooters, Akins may not get a clean look all game.

3. The Illini will have a shot to win in the final moments

Michigan State has a glittering record and a 10-game winning streak, but the Spartans' margin for error is still somewhat unclear. MSU's only win over a ranked team came in overtime almost two months ago in Maui, over a No. 12 North Carolina squad that is now 12-6 and unranked. And Sparty hasn't exactly stepped on the gas to close out other games against contenders – or even non-contenders, as was the case when Penn State was allowed to hang around in Wednesday's five-point MSU win.

Illinois has too many offensive weapons and can beat defenses in too many ways for Michigan State to mess around with leaving the door open at the end of a game. Trouble is, the Spartans also lack the firepower – particularly the three-point shooting – to put a lot of distance between themselves and the Illini, even on their best day. Illinois ultimately may come up short in a road matchup against the current Big Ten leader – but it won't come without an opportunity to win in the game's final moments.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

How to Watch: Illinois Basketball at Michigan State (Game 18)

Michigan State's Tom Izzo Compares Illinois Basketball to 'Celtics or Lakers'

Illinois Basketball Makes Significant Moves in NET, KenPom Rankings


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Jason Langendorf
JASON LANGENDORF

Jason Langendorf has covered Illinois basketball, football and more for Illinois on SI since October 2024, and has covered Illini sports – among other subjects – for 30 years. A veteran of ESPN and Sporting News, he has published work in The Guardian, Vice, Chicago Sun-Times and many other outlets. He is currently also the U.S. editor at BoxingScene and a judge for the annual BWAA writing awards. He can be followed and reached on X and Bluesky @JasonLangendorf.