How Illinois Basketball Can Pull Off a Shocker Upset Against No. 3 Duke

On Jan. 8, less than a month and a half ago, Illinois was sitting at 12-3 (4-1 Big Ten), ranked No. 13 in the country and had just knocked off Penn State 91-52 – good for the largest margin of victory in a Big Ten game since 2004.

Meanwhile, over 700 miles east in Durham, North Carolina, one night earlier, Duke – ranked No. 4 at the time – cruised to a 76-47 win over Pitt, highlighted by freshman sensation Cooper Flagg’s poster jam.

Cooper Flagg with the dunk of the year: pic.twitter.com/u2P2xTgd6g
— Kevin Sweeney (@CBB_Central) January 8, 2025

In that moment, a Feb. 22 neutral-site meeting at new York's Madison Square Garden between the teams looked like one of the sweetest matchups of the second half of the college basketball season – a true ACC-Big Ten clash for the ages.

Meet you at The Garden.#Illini | #HTTO | #EveryDayGuys pic.twitter.com/75by2DPHdg
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) August 14, 2024

Times change.

Since then, Duke has held up its end of the bargain, rattling off 10 wins, dropping just one game and even climbing a spot, to No. 3, in the AP poll.

Meanwhile, Illinois – hampered by injuries and illness – has gone just 5-7, falling to the middle of the Big Ten standings and subsequently out of the AP poll altogether.

What was once expected to be a highly competitive matchup on college basketball’s biggest stage, is now all but penciled into the books as a Duke win.

Coming off back-to-back blowout losses, now without freshman big Morez Johnson Jr. (sidelined by a broken wrist) and playing with an illness-stricken lineup, the Illini enter MSG under less-than-desirable circumstances. It begs the question: Is there any realistic chance of an upset?

Simple answer:

Yes.

And here’s how it could happen.

Win the boards

In all three of Duke’s losses, there were struggles on the glass. Against Kentucky, Kansas and Clemson, the Blue Devils had an average rebounding margin of minus-6.0 – a shocking figure considering their average margin of plus-8.2 (No. 10 in the country).

That bodes poorly for a matchup against Illinois – a squad that ranks second in the nation in rebounding margin at plus-10.0. While the Illini will be missing a big piece in the injured Johnson, it’s worth noting that Illinois has dominated the glass even in games in which Johnson scarcely played. Outrebounding the Blue Devils is the first step in keeping things close.

Outduel Duke from beyond the arc

Sounds crazy? Well, the Clemson loss is an outlier (Duke went 12-for-24 from three), but in the Blue Devils’ other losses, they shot a lower percentage from long distance than their opponents. Against Kentucky, while the Wildcats went 10-for-25 (40.0 percent) from deep, Duke shot just 4-for-24 (16.7 percent). As for the Kansas loss, the Jayhawks shot a stellar 8-for-17 (47.1 percent), while Duke went 11-for-26 (42.3 percent) – by no means a poor showing from deep, but not quite enough to hold off the upset.

Meanwhile, Illinois is shooting just 31.2 percent from long range – but still putting up the second-most attempts per game of any Power Four squad in Division I (30.3). And while the Illini’s efficiency is nothing to write home about, they have shown the ability to get hot from three (16-for-29 at Oregon, 15-for-31 against Arkansas and, more recently, 9-for-16 against Minnesota). If Illinois can control the glass and put on a three-point shooting display, all while stifling Duke’s own long-distance attack, it has a chance to pull off a real shocker Saturday in the Big Apple.

How Illinois Basketball Can Pull Off a Shocker Upset Against No. 3 Duke

Win the boards

Outduel Duke from beyond the arc

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