3 Bold Predictions for Illinois Basketball vs. Duke

Illinois (17-10, 9-8 Big Ten), fighting injuries and illness, and having dropped seven of its last 12, seems to be at its lowest point of the season – just in time for a matchup with Goliath.

On Saturday (7 p.m. CT, on FOX), the Illini take on No. 3 Duke (23-3, 15-1 ACC) at Madison Square Garden in a matchup that could turn their season around or prove to be the straw that broke the camel's back.

To pull off the upset, the Illini will need season-best performances all around. Our college hoops Magic 8 Ball is uncertain whether that’s coming, but it’s quite confident in several other bold predictions:

Kasparas Jakucionis will put together the best all-around performance of his career

Jakucionis’ turnover woes and scoring inconsistency have been underscored recently as Illinois continues to drop games left and right. Nonetheless, Jakucionis is averaging 15.6 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists, and continues to showcase next-level abilities. Notably, many of his subpar performances have come against small guards. On Tuesday against Wisconsin, Jakucionis put up more turnovers (seven) than points and assists combined (six). And who was sticking him? The generously listed 6-footer Kamari McGee.

Small guards' ability to stay in front and often gain purchase beneath Jakucionis has bothered him all season long, and led to him turning over the ball at an astronomically high rate. But against the Blue Devils, Jakucionis will be checked by either Tyrese Proctor or Sion James – both of whom stand at 6-foot-6. Those matchups bring other challenges, of course, but it may be that they better suit Jakucionis, who has been brilliant in the biggest moments (24 points against then-No. 1 Tennessee, for example). Playing with extra motivation after a rough outing in Madison, expect the projected lottery pick to put on a show in the Garden.

KJ is up to 20 points!

That's the new Illinois freshman record for most 20-point games in a season 👀

📺: @BigTenNetwork pic.twitter.com/s4pKzvLUnb
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) February 9, 2025

Cooper Flagg will go off for 25 (or more) points

Although it’s hardly a hot take to predict a big night from a 19.7-points-per-game scorer, it’s worth noting Flagg has surpassed 25 points just once in his past six outings. That’s all set to change against the Illini. They have struggled against bigger wings all season – just take your pick: Arkansas’ Adou Thiero (26 points), Northwestern’s Nick Martinelli (27 points) or Wisconsin’s John Tonje earlier this week (31 points). Time and again, Illinois has lacked an answer for long, dynamic perimeter players.

Given defensive stopper Kylan Boswell’s size limitations (6-foot-2), his impact is lessened against bigger bodies. 6-foot-9 Ben Humrichous lacks the quick-twitch athleticism and fluidity to stay with Flagg. The Illini could turn to 6-foot-7 Tre White, though he hasn't been much help in similar matchups this season. And because Flagg will be the best wing – and perhaps best player – Illinois has seen to date, it's almost unimaginable that he won't have his way Saturday.

Illinois will win the rebounding battle

Despite the Illini ranking second in the nation in rebounding margin (plus-10.1), they are not expected to beat Duke on the glass. The Blue Devils rank 10th in the country in rebounding margin and field a lineup of starters who each stand 6-foot-6 or taller. And with Illinois losing 6.6 rebounds per game from Morez Johnson Jr. (sidelined by a broken wrist), and with leading boards man Tomislav Ivisic (8.3 per game) fighting through a stomach bug, the Illini are not the same squad on the glass. On Tuesday, they were outrebounded by nine against Wisconsin.

Still, although Johnson’s absence is a blow, Illinois has proven its ability to control the glass even without its freshman big. In games against Alabama, Tennessee and Michigan State (all three currently among college basketball's top 25 rebounding teams), Johnson played just 12.3 minutes per game; the Illini still finished a combined plus-3 in rebounding margin across those three matchups. If Ivisic is healthy, and after having been sufficiently humbled in the Badgers blowout, the Illini figure to hit the floor at MSG with extra bounce and something to prove on the boards.

3 Bold Predictions for Illinois Basketball vs. Duke

Kasparas Jakucionis will put together the best all-around performance of his career

Cooper Flagg will go off for 25 (or more) points

Illinois will win the rebounding battle

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