No. 9 Maryland at No. 20 Illinois: Three In The Key Preview & Prediction

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. -- In the Big Ten Conference opener, Illinois led Maryland for 38 minutes and 20 seconds of a game in the Terrapins arena. The heartbreaker in College Park, ending the chance at knocking off a Top-3 team for the first time in 30 years, has not been forgotten by the Illinois players even after the Illini has made a run to the top of the league standings.

“It’s there," sophomore guard Ayo Dosunmu said. "We didn’t forget. We remember how we were in the locker room. We remember the feeling. It stuck with us."

Two months later, both teams have changed so significantly in style and ability to close games. Tonight’s game represents the latest in a season that Illinois has been in first since Feb. 13, 2010, and an opportunity at 7 p.m., for the No. 20 Illini (16-6, 8-3) to gain another high-quality win in front of a rowdy State Farm Center crowd when No. 9 Maryland (18-4, 8-3) comes to Champaign.

“I want them to play for first," Illinois head coach Brad Underwood said. "I think Mark’s (Turgeon) got his team probably ready to play for first, or (Michigan State coach) Tom (Izzo), or (Iowa coach) Fran (McCaffery), or (Penn State coach) Pat (Chambers) or whoever. It’s what we do. We’re playing to win this game. It just happens to be right now the two teams that are tied for first and the winner gets sole possession."

Two months ago, Illinois closed the half ahead of Maryland by 14 after shooting 47.1 percent for its 39 points while holding the hosts to just 25 points on 30.3 percent overall and 21.4 percent from behind the arc. However, they couldn’t close the deal and allowed Illinois players to go back and figure out how to eventually close out games against Michigan, at Purdue and at Michigan.

"I think that loss opened up a lot of people’s eyes," Illini freshman center Kofi Cockburn said. "We realized what we could do with that loss because everybody knows we were up and they came back and pulled one out. It was a tough one, but we realized what we could do and how good we could become."

Two months after one of the most frustrating losses of the 2019-20 season, Illinois has a chance to prove they can close out a quality opponent once again and prove they’re a much different team than the one that opened conference play.

"I think we're better in every aspect of the game,” Underwood said.

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Game 23: No. 9 Maryland at No. 20 Illinois

Date/Time/Place: Friday, Feb. 7, 2020: 7 p.m. CST, State Farm Center, Champaign, Ill.

Capacity: 15,544

Records: Illinois 16-6, 8-3 in Big Ten; 12-21, 7-13 in Big Ten Conference in 2018-19. Maryland 18-4, 8-3 in Big Ten; 23-11, 13-7 in Big Ten Conference in 2018-19.

Line: Illinois by 3

Series notes: Maryland leads the all-time series 10-6 and have won three of four in Champaign. Tonight’s meeting is a first-place showdown, with the Illini and Terrapins entering the game tied atop the conference standings at 8-3. This is the latest in a season that Illinois has been in first since Feb. 13, 2010. Illinois will play in front of a sellout crowd for the second straight home game. Four of the five remaining games at State Farm Center are sold out, with the Feb. 24 Nebraska contest the only date left with tickets still available. Maryland is 25-25 on the road since joining the Big Ten, including an 18-14 mark since 2016-17. The Terps have finished with a winning conference road record in three of five years since joining the Big Ten.

TV: FS1 - Dave Revsine (PBP), Stephen Bardo (analyst)

Radio (Illinois): Brian Barnhart (PBP), Deon Thomas (analyst) - The broadcast can be heard live on TuneIn online radio, Sirius/XM 83 and at FightingIllini.com.

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Before every game of the 2019-20 season, we take a look at three things you’ll want to watch for after the tip.

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1) Can Kofi get out to the perimeter to guard Jalen Smith

Jalen Smith may be the most versatile talent that Illinois center Kofi Cockburn will see all season. Smith is on an absolute tear over his last five games, averaging 20.3 points (59.2 field goal percentage), 11.7 rebounds and 3.0 blocks. Smith is also shooting 46-percent from 3-point range and 83 percent from the foul line during that span. Smith is tied for the Big Ten Conference lead in double-doubles (13), including five straight. Defensively, Smith’s 11 blocks over the last two games are the most in a two-game span for a Terp since Alex Len had 11 in 2013.

Cockburn allowed foul trouble to force him into averaging just eight points and six rebounds in Illinois' last three games. When he was on the floor two months ago against Smith in College Park, Cockburn was very effective on both ends of the floor. He’ll need to stay in the game and use his size advantage over Smith but also he’ll need to get away from the basket consistently to challenge Smith’s perimeter shots. If he can’t go both of those things, Illinois will have to rely on beating Maryland on the perimeter and that’s not a sound game plan when the opponent has Anthony Cowan - just go back to two months ago if you want recent evidence.

2) Will Illinois take its foot off the gas?

Illinois will play in front of a sellout crowd for the second straight home game and this is Illinois’ first game against a top-10 opponent since Dec. 11, when the Illini defeated No. 5 Michigan

in Champaign, 71-62. Illinois has won its last two home games against top-10 teams, beginning with a 79-74 victory over No. 9 Michigan State last season (Feb. 5, 2019). Therefore, the Orange Krush will be in full attendance and the atmosphere is likely to be electric on a Friday night. One would think that the Illini might get an early jump from this type of atmosphere but Maryland has proven they’re never out of a game. Never. Maryland has come back from 14-point deficits against both Illinois and Northwestern in the second half to win this year. The Terps are the first power-5 team to achieve the feat in conference action since UCLA in the 2004-05 season.

3) Can Da'Monte shut down Darrell Morsell?

The Illini are in a position where they need to rely on a player to do everything but score - Peoria native Da’Monte Williams. Simply put, Maryland is 11-0 when Morsell reaches double-figures and he’s the key piece to the Terrapins' success because you’re likely to know what you’ll get from the All-Big Ten Conference selections Anthony Cowan and Jalen Smith. In his last three games against Indiana, Iowa, and Rutgers, Morsell is shooting 13 of 23 from the field and averaging 11.3 points per game in three wins. Williams, who suffered from foul trouble Sunday at Iowa City, has proven to be one of the most athletic and fundamentally sound defender in the Big Ten Conference. This game quietly revolves around whether Maryland can find a third offensive banana to counter what Cowan and Smith do.

Prediction: Maryland 68, Illinois 66

It’s just so hard to bet against Maryland. Truth be told, they’ve been in this kind of situation and among active head coaches heading into the 2019-20 season, Terrapins head coach Mark Turgeon has the second-most Big Ten conference wins/season (11.8), trailing only Tom Izzo (12).

The Terps lead the Big Ten in fewest fouls/g (14.8) and free throws made (364), while ranking third in blocks per game (4.9) and fourth in field goal percentage defense (38.4). Therefore, Illinois won’t be able to rely on defense to handle long scoring droughts because Maryland is just as solid defensively.

I also need to see Cockburn be able to step out to the perimeter to bother the offense of Jalen Smith before I believe he can move his feet effectively on defense and still have the physicality to overpower Smith in the paint.

The Terps have come back to win seven games in which it has trailed by as many as eight points this season. Maryland is also 3-3 when trailing with five minutes to play because they have one of the best leaders in the league: Anthony Cowan. Therefore, I don’t believe the State Farm Center atmosphere will affect him much.