Has Illinois Already Secured a No. 2 Seed in the NCAA Tournament?

The Illini, who tip off their Big Ten Tournament on Friday, appear to be a two seed for now. Is that cemented, or is there a chance for movement?

Dec 9, 2025; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts to a call during the first half against the Ohio State Buckeyes Value City Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images | Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

The NCAA Tournament selection committee always takes the Big Ten Tournament into account for seeding the Big Dance – or so it says. Rarely in the past has the league tournament actually appeared to have a notable impact on the brackets come Selection Sunday, but for teams toggling on the edge of a seed line, it can be a difference-maker.

So that begs the question: Is Illinois a confirmed two seed for the NCAA Tournament?

Could Illinois shift its NCAA Tournament position with its Big Ten Tournament performance?

Mar 8, 2026; College Park, Maryland, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts during the second half against the Maryland Terrapins at Xfinity Center. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

All major Bracketology sites slot the Illini as a two seed, but the majority also have Brad Underwood’s club as the final two seed. First, to kill the dreams of any (wildly) optimistic Illini fans: Illinois is entirely out of the picture for a one seed.

Even if the Illini ran through the tournament field and cut down the nets in Chicago, and both Florida and UConn lost in the first game of their respective tournaments, a No. 1 seed would be out of reach for Illinois. (Duke, Michigan and Arizona have already cemented their positions).

So that leaves just one direction for Illinois to go: down – that is, if there is any movement at all. Here are the possibilities:

1) Illinois loses in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament

Nov 28, 2025; New York, New York, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell (4) reacts after getting fouled in the second half against the UConn Huskies at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The Illini earned a triple bye, meaning they are automatically in the conference tourney quarterfinals. If they drop their first outing – which will come against either Wisconsin, Washington or USC – a deep run in a conference tournament from any of the current expected three seeds (especially Iowa State or Alabama) could see Illinois get leapfrogged.

Illinois on SI confidence in a two seed from Scenario 1: 55 percent

2) Illinois makes the Big Ten Tournament semifinals

Mar 8, 2026; College Park, Maryland, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood walks down the court during the first half against the Maryland Terrapins at Xfinity Center. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

If the Illini can manage just one win in the Big Ten Tournament, it would almost certainly prevent any drop in seed line, barring some combination of an absolute disaster in the semifinal game – which would likely be against Michigan – and a tournament title from one of the aforementioned potential three seeds.

Illinois on SI confidence in a two seed from Scenario 2: 90 percent

3) Illinois wins two or more games in the Big Ten Tournament

Mar 3, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini players celebrate their 80-54 win against the Oregon Ducks during the second half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

If the Illini win two or more games in the conference tournament, it means they will have played in (or won) the Big Ten Tournament championship, cementing them not just as a two seed but perhaps even moving them to the front half of the seed line. Again, a one seed would still be out of the cards, but the momentum created from a tournament title could propel Illinois toward a deep run in the Big Dance.

Illinois on SI confidence in a two seed from Scenario 3: 99.9 percent