Big Ten Tournament Predictions: Can Illinois Win It, or Is Michigan Invincible?

The Big Ten Tournament isn’t exactly the calm before the storm, but it certainly doesn’t bring the buzz that the NCAA Tournament does. That said, it’s an opportunity for teams to build momentum, put the finishing touches on any potential final schematic changes and, ideally, earn some bragging rights over the rest of the league.

And, of course, for the squads on the bubble or likely left off the Big Dance card altogether, it’s a chance to punch their ticket through an automatic bid. (Notably, it’s a rare occurrence for a team not expecting to receive an at-large bid to win the league tournament in the loaded Big Ten.)

The conference tournament action tips off on Tuesday. Here’s our entire round-by-round projections:

Big Ten Tournament first-round predictions

Jan 29, 2026; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions forward Mason Blackwood (1) defends Northwestern Wildcats forward Nick Martinelli (2) during the first half at Welsh-Ryan Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

No. 16 Oregon vs. No. 17 Maryland

The pick: Oregon. After sputtering through nearly its entire campaign, Oregon has recently hit a groove … maybe. The Ducks have won three of their past five – including a massive home victory over Wisconsin – and should carry that momentum into Chicago.

No. 15 Northwestern vs. No. 18 Penn State

The pick: Northwestern. Star forward Nick Martinelli has scored 20 or more in five straight outings. Also, the Wildcats have one double-digit triumph in league play – and guess who it came against? Penn State.

Big Ten Tournament second-round predictions

Feb 24, 2026; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Northwestern Wildcats guard Angelo Ciaravino (44) hits Indiana Hoosiers forward Tucker DeVries (12) as he shoots during the second half at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 16 Oregon

The pick: Iowa. The Ducks’ recent momentum is only going to carry them so far. To be exact, until they meet the Hawkeyes, whom we expect to end their three-game skid (including two heartbreaker losses against Michigan and Nebraska).

No. 12 Washington vs. No. 13 USC

The pick: Washington. The Huskies swept the season series against USC, and the Trojans have also lost their go-to option (Chad Baker-Mazara). It’s difficult to beat a team three times in one season, but there’s no reason to believe Washington won’t do exactly that on Wednesday.

No. 10 Indiana vs. No. 15 Northwestern

The pick: Northwestern. The Wildcats’ escape in Bloomington was a hot topic just weeks ago (clear missed call on a late three-pointer from Indiana), but they will put any questions to rest with an early-tournament upset over Indiana.

No. 11 Minnesota vs. No. 14 Rutgers

The pick: Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are a thoroughly confusing squad. One thing is certain, though: Niko Medved can really coach. Expect Minnesota to advance to the third round for a matchup with UCLA.

Big Ten Tournament third-round predictions

Mar 7, 2026; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes guard John Mobley Jr. (0) reacts during the second half against the Indiana Hoosiers at Value City Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images | Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Iowa

The pick: Ohio State. The Buckeyes have been rolling of late, and they should manage to slip past a feisty Hawkeyes team, which seems to find a way to stick around in every game.

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Washington

The pick: Washington. The Huskies were just buried by Wisconsin, but the Badgers also hit 17 threes, which they followed up with 13 long-range bombs against Maryland and 18 at Purdue. That fire can't burn forever for Wisconsin, and we’ve seen what happens when it dwindles even slightly (lost by 14 at Oregon a few games ago).

No. 7 Purdue vs. No. 15 Northwestern

The pick: Purdue. The Wildcats are making it tough not to ride with them after they took the Boilermakers down to the wire and arguably controlled the contest in Evanston less than a week ago. Nevertheless, the talent disparity is too glaring to overlook.

No. 6 UCLA vs. No. 11 Minnesota

The pick: UCLA. Mick Cronin’s club recently fell at Minnesota, but it took a scorching-hot shooting performance from the Golden Gophers to stave off the Bruins. Expect UCLA to get its revenge in the conference tournament.

Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals predictions

Feb 10, 2026; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) shoots a three-point shot against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the second half at Pinnacle Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 8 Ohio State

The pick: Michigan. Past Big Ten Tournament history hasn’t been kind to one seeds, but the Wolverines aren’t the typical one seed. Dusty May’s crew should cruise past Ohio State.

No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 12 Washington

The pick: Illinois. The Huskies, who are fairly athletic and fantastic on the offensive glass, are capable of giving the Illini some problems (as they did in the regular-season matchup) – but none that will prove to be fatal.

No. 2 Nebraska vs. No. 7 Purdue

The pick: Purdue. We keep waiting for the ball to drop. For the switch to flip. When are we going to see the Boilermakers squad we expected? We’re going to say right here, against the Cornhuskers in the Big Ten Tournament quarters.

No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 6 UCLA

The pick: UCLA. The Spartans may have blasted the Bruins in East Lansing a few weeks ago, but UCLA has been a different team since that loss. Remember: the Bruins were No. 12 in the preseason AP poll. They have the talent (and coaching) to play with, and beat, anyone – and they have been doing a lot of the latter recently.

Big Ten Tournament semifinals predictions

Jan 20, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; UCLA Bruins guard Donovan Dent (2) drives past Purdue Boilermakers forward Trey Kaufman-Renn (4) in the first half at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom Financial. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Illinois

The pick: Michigan. Sometimes we can be prone to overthinking things, so let's simplify it: The Wolverines just definitively showed exactly what they can do to the Illini (in Champaign, mind you), so why wouldn’t they be likely to deliver the same result?

No. 6 UCLA vs. No. 7 Purdue

The pick: Purdue. After falling on a late-game bucket in Los Angeles earlier this season, the Boilermakers are seeking their get-back – and we expect them to have the opportunity in Chicago. A cinematic duel between lead guards Donovan Dent (UCLA) and Braden Smith (Purdue) should decide this one.

Big Ten Tournament championship prediction

Feb 17, 2026; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Michigan Wolverines forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) drives the ball against Purdue Boilermakers guard Fletcher Loyer (2) during the first half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 7 Purdue

The Illinois on SI pick: Michigan. The Wolverines tend to really get up for marquee matchups. The closest game in their potential Big Ten Tournament title run may come in the quarterfinals. As they did in West Lafayette a few weeks ago, the Wolverines should be expected to have their way with the Boilermakers.