Staff Picks: Who Wins Illinois vs VCU in the NCAA Tournament Round of 32?

One down, five to go.

Yes, we realize Illinois' pet theme is "1-0" – or, in other words, one game at a time – but the reality is the Illini didn't schlep out to Greenville, South Carolina, to beat 14th-seeded Penn in the NCAA Tournament just to return home to Champaign and enjoy their spring. No. 11 seed VCU is up next (Saturday, 6:50 p.m. CT, CBS) at Bon Secours Wellness Arena, and the Sweet 16 is the intended next destination – though just a pit stop on the way to where Illinois really wants to go.

Still, the No. 3-seeded Illini (25-8) have the right idea in not getting ahead of themselves – especially when sizing up the Rams (28-7), the Atlantic 10 champs and winners of a brilliant comeback win over North Carolina in an overtime upset in the first round. Just how big a threat is VCU, though?

Phil Martelli Jr. is a heady coach, and he has a bunch of pesky, attacking, do-everything contributors he smartly deploys to overwhelm opponents with activity and scoring. The Illini – owners of the nation's top-ranked offense – have the size and skill to match the Rams tit for tat, and then do them one better. But they also have endured some flat starts, shooting droughts and lulls this season that have led to flubs against lesser teams. Any dip of that nature against VCU could indeed send them back to U-C for the spring – but a lot earlier than they would have wished.

So what'll it be? Will the Illini roll on, or can the Rams conjure another upset? Our crack Illinois on SI staff calls Illinois-VCU as we see it below:

Jason Langendorf

Penn was both small and undermanned, which gave Illinois both a physical edge but also the confidence to pound the paint and fire away, knowing full well that any misses were as likely to be corralled by an offensive rebounder as a Quaker. Although undersized, VCU is active and athletic, and the Illini will need to avoid the occasional sleepwalks they've been guilty of from time to time this season and avoid settling on long jumpers. Siege the paint with David Mirkovic and Tomislav Ivisic, and they move on.

Prediction: Illinois 91, VCU 85

1-0.

📆 March 21
🏆 NCAA Tournament Round 2
🆚 [11] VCU
⏰ 6:50 p.m. CT
📍 Greenville, SC
📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/Tz1qhHk9IP
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 20, 2026

Steve Greenberg

You have to worry some about jitterbug guard Terrence Hill Jr., who got loose for 34 points in a first-round upset of North Carolina. Penn’s guys weren’t nearly as quick as the Rams, who are clever at finding room to fire three-pointers and make them at a better-than-average clip. This surely will be more of a test, but the Illini are Sweet 16-bound.

Prediction: Illinois 88, VCU 79

"The best offensive player in the country in my mind."

— .@CWalkerSports on VCU's Terrence Hill Jr. pic.twitter.com/QVrAukT6S0
— CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 (@CBSSportsCBB) March 20, 2026

Jackson Langendorf

VCU has all of the scary attributes of the typical 11 seed: exceptional guard play, a frustrating tendency to hang around in games and a lot of momentum (the Rams have now won 17 of their past 18 games). Illinois, for the majority of the year, has just relied on its size and talent. Is that enough to carry it to a Final Four? Probably not. (Brad Underwood stepping up as a tactician is a must.) But it should be more than enough to carry the Illini past the Rams and into the next round.

Prediction: Illinois 80, VCU 68

Pranav Hegde

VCU is far better than a typical 11 seed, with an electric lead guard and athletic defenders who can make games ugly in a hurry. Still, Illinois has the size, skill and offensive firepower to create problems the Rams have rarely encountered. If the Illini handle the pressure and control the glass, they should be able to pull away late.

Prediction: Illinois 85, VCU 74

Jake Davis ↗️ Zvonimir Ivisic 💥

This @IlliniMBB alley oop slam got the @UnitedCenter LOUD ‼️ pic.twitter.com/JtlVsSmWUD
— Big Ten Men's Basketball (@B1GMBBall) March 13, 2026

Jared Shlesky

Illinois is arguably coming off its most complete win of the season, while VCU just pulled off the biggest upset of the tournament after beating North Carolina. But the Rams are faar from a one-hit wonder. VCU is on a tear, and has held opposing teams under 70 points in seven straight games. Mirkovic has played well of late, but Illinois needs Keaton Wagler to have a Keaton Wagler Game if it's going to hold off VCU.

Prediction: Illinois 71, VCU 67

Keaton Wagler is feeling it early pic.twitter.com/w3a7UF33o1
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) March 20, 2026

Jack Ankony

This is a tough game to predict because North Carolina significantly outplayed VCU for about 35 minutes. Was it a collapse by the Tar Heels or an impressive comeback by VCU? It felt like a bit of both. For that reason, I’m not totally buying VCU as a Cinderella. But I do think the Rams have dynamic guards and a versatile forward who can give Illinois’ defense some problems. I give the Illini the advantage from a rebounding standpoint, which will allow them to pull away in the last five or 10 minutes.