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Keaton Wagler’s Big Decision: Return to Illinois or Enter the 2026 NBA Draft?

Should Keaton Wagler return to Champaign or enter the NBA Draft? Breaking down the strongest case for both sides.
Pranav Hegde|
UConn Huskies guard Silas Demary Jr. (2) defends and is called for a foul against Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) on Saturday, April 4, 2026, during a Final Four game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
UConn Huskies guard Silas Demary Jr. (2) defends and is called for a foul against Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) on Saturday, April 4, 2026, during a Final Four game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. | Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Keaton Wagler just finished the kind of freshman season that usually ends with a player shaking the commissioner’s hand a few months later.

He became one of the biggest breakout stars in college basketball, helped push Illinois to a Final Four and now sits squarely in the middle of the NBA draft conversation. Bleacher Report’s latest mock draft, published April 7, has Wagler going No. 6 overall to a struggling Atlanta Hawks squad. 

That is what makes the question so fascinating for Illinois fans: should Wagler come back for another year of college basketball, or should he leave now while his stock is soaring?

The case for him to stay

Brad Underwoo
Nov 8, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood displays the three consecutive Big 10 championship trophies before a game against the SIU Edwardsville Cougars at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

1. Illinois could be loaded again next season

The best reason for Wagler to return is simple: Illinois could be right back in the national title mix. The Illini have a chance to bring back six rotation players from this year’s Final Four team, which is almost unheard of in modern college basketball. With that much continuity, Illinois would enter next season with the experience, chemistry and talent to make another serious run in March.

2. NIL changes the equation

Whether fans like it or not, NIL is a huge part of college athletics now, and it is one of the biggest reasons top talent is staying in the sport longer.

A few years ago, a player in Wagler’s position would have had almost no financial reason to return to school. That is no longer true. If Wagler comes back, he could have a real case to be the top NIL earner in college basketball next season.

He has already been one of the top sellers on the NIL Store, and after the season he just had, his value would only continue to rise.

Between jersey sales, endorsements and the visibility that comes with being the face of a national title contender, Wagler could make enough money at Illinois for returning to be a completely realistic option.

3. This year's freshman class is fantastic

By most draft experts’ accounts, this year’s freshman class is one of the best in recent memory, which makes the top of the 2026 NBA Draft especially crowded.

If Wagler returns to Illinois and enters the draft a year later, he could be doing so in a weaker class with less competition near the top of the board. That opens the door for him to be drafted even higher than he might be this year.

The case for Wagler to go to the NBA

Will Rile
Jun 25, 2025; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Will Riley stands with NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected as the 21st pick by the Utah Jazz in the first round of the 2025 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

1. Age and upside

One of the biggest factors NBA teams consider when drafting players highly is upside. In the last five NBA drafts, only two American players (Keegan Murray from Iowa, Jaden Ivey from Purdue) selected in the top five were more than one year removed from high school.

That is because younger players are often viewed as having more untapped potential, and few prospects fit that description better than Keaton Wagler. He has grown tremendously over the past year, and NBA teams will likely see him as a player whose best basketball is still ahead of him.

2. Guaranteed money

There are no sure things in life, and basketball is no different. One fluke injury can change the entire trajectory of a player’s career, which is why top prospects often have a hard time passing up the NBA. If Wagler were selected sixth overall, as Bleacher Report’s latest mock draft projects, he would be in line to make roughly $37.5 million over the course of his four-year rookie deal, according to Spotrac.com.

And if he shows even a glimpse of the potential NBA teams are betting on, his second contract could be worth more than $50 million per year. That is not just life-changing money. It is the kind of financial upside that has to weigh heavily in a decision like this.

3. NBA development

Sure, college life has its perks, especially when you are the star of the show on a basketball-crazed campus. But there is a different level of development that comes with the NBA. The facilities are better, the training is more specialized and every part of the day is built around helping players improve.

Instead of heading to History 101 on a Tuesday morning, Wagler could be deep into his second workout of the day, focused entirely on getting stronger, sharper and more prepared for the next level. Illinois offers a lot, but it still cannot match what full-time NBA development can do for a player’s body and game.

Illinois on SI's Bottom Line

Some may see this as a difficult decision, but the reality is that Wagler should go to the NBA and have no regrets. This is what players dream about.

They dream about reaching the highest level, hearing their name called on draft night and maybe even becoming the face of a franchise that needs saving. Asking a 19-year-old to pass on that kind of opportunity – and that kind of money – so he can study for a French midterm in October is just not realistic.

And truthfully, Illinois fans should celebrate it if he goes. Not because they want to lose him, but because of what it says about the program. If Illinois can turn a three-star prospect that few people knew into a top-10 pick, that becomes one of the best recruiting pitches in the country. Recruits notice that. Families notice that. Everyone notices that.

And if Wagler joins Terrence Shannon Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley as recent first-rounders with Illinois ties, it only adds to the belief that Underwood’s staff can develop NBA talent at a very high level.

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Pranav Hegde
PRANAV HEGDE

Primarily covers Illinois football, basketball and golf, with an emphasis on news, analysis and features. Hegde, an electrical engineering student at Illinois with an affinity for sports writing, has been writing for On SI since April 2025. He can be followed and reached on Instagram @pranavhegde__.

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