KenPom, NET Metrics Tell a Surprising Story Heading Into Illinois vs. Michigan

One team stands above the other according to both rankings – and which one it is might surprise you

Feb 25, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) looks to pass as Iowa Hawkeyes guard Carter Kingsbury (14) defends during the first half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Looking strictly at wins and losses – which are, of course, the only two things that matter at the end of the day – Illinois and No. 15 Michigan stand in two different worlds.

The Illini, with a record of 18-11 (10-8 Big Ten) sit in the middle of the conference standings – and well outside the AP Top 25 poll.

Meanwhile, the Wolverines, with a glossy 22-6 record (14-3 Big Ten) are tied for first place in the conference, and are ranked No. 15.

Although Illinois’ tough non-conference slate – which has included No. 2 Duke, No. 5 Tennessee and No. 6 Alabama, among others – is certainly worth noting, there are few easier ways to compare teams than against similar competition.

And, lo and behold, the Illini and Wolverines play in the same league, and one team (Michigan) has found itself on the right side of the scoreboard at a much higher rate than the other.

Naturally, when the wins and losses tell such a convincing story, you’re inclined to assume the rest of the numbers support the obvious. In this case, they don’t.

In KenPom – typically a better predictor of NCAA Tournament success than AP votes or conference standings – the Illini land at No. 22, two spots ahead of the Wolverines, who are slotted at No. 24.

In any case, Sunday's matchup (2:45 p.m. CT, on CBS) is a fun one: Illinois’ stellar offense (18th in efficiency) will meet Michigan’s stifling defense (19th in efficiency), while the Illini try to pull a rabbit out their hat against the Wolverines' two 7-footers. But after the faltering Illinois defense (35th in efficiency) made magic against Iowa minus Morez Johnson Jr. (broken wrist), maybe the Illini have it in them to shut down the Wolverines' offense (40th in efficiency).

Behind-the-back pass. Knock-down three.

A thing of beauty. pic.twitter.com/i4RIQx7mAU

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) February 26, 2025

As for the NET rankings, Illinois sits one spot ahead of Michigan (No. 23), landing at 22nd.

A tougher schedule (16 Quad 1 games to the Wolverines' 12) and just one loss outside of Quad 1 competition (Michigan has two) appears to be the difference.

Although KenPom and the NET rankings appear to give Illinois the advantage (albeit a small one), the reality is that Michigan – the more proven of the pair, and playing at home – walks into Sunday's game with the upper hand.

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