Movement for Illinois Basketball in Bracketology and Advanced Metrics?

Illinois has lost back-to-back games for the first time this season, falling 85-82 in overtime at Michigan State on Saturday and 92-90 in overtime at home against Wisconsin on Tuesday.

That led to a notable change in one updated NCAA Tournament projection, despite the NET rankings and KenPom still holding the Illini in high regard.

With six Big Ten games remaining and the conference tournament ahead, a lot can change come Selection Sunday. But here's a closer look at where Illinois stands in recent projections and updated rankings:

Illinois falls in CBS Sports' updated Bracketology

Brad Underwood Illinois Basketball — Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood talks to forward David Mirkovic (0) against the Northwestern Wildcats at State Farm Center. | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Illinois fell from a No. 2 to a No. 3 seed in CBS Sports' updated Bracketology after Tuesday's loss to Wisconsin. However, the outlet noted that its model still projects the Illini to climb back up to the No. 2 line come Selection Sunday, so it could be just a temporary setback.

In this scenario, Illinois would play No. 14 seed Winthrop in the Round of 64, followed by a matchup against No. 6 seed Clemson or No. 11 seed Miami (Ohio). Out of the MAC, Miami (24-0) is the nation's last undefeated team, while Clemson is second in the ACC standings at 20-4 and 10-1.

One of the teams Illinois is battling for a No. 2 seed is Purdue, which moved up from a No. 3 to a No. 2 seed after the Boilermakers' overtime win at No. 7 Nebraska on Tuesday. Purdue (10-3) is a half game behind Illinois (11-3) in the Big Ten standings and lost a head-to-head meeting to the Illini at Mackey Arena, the teams' only matchup of the season.

Illinois is also a victim of Kansas' eight-game win streak, which dates back to Jan. 13 and includes wins over No. 1 Arizona, No. 2 Iowa State, No. 13 BYU and No. 13 Texas Tech. The Jayhawks are a No. 2 seed in CBS Sports' latest projection despite being unranked in the AP poll as recently as Jan. 12.

Illinois' most likely seed is a No. 3 at 30.9 percent, according to TeamRankings.com, followed closely by a No. 2 seed at 24.5 percent. Back-to-back losses may have eliminated Illinois' chances of securing a No. 1 seed, though. These projections say a No. 4 seed is more likely at 21.4 percent, compared to its chances of earning a No. 1 seed at 3.1 percent.

NET rankings, KenPom still love the Illini

Keaton Wagler Illinois Basketball — Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) drives against Wisconsin Badgers guard Braedon Carrington (0) at State Farm Center. | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Losses to Michigan State and Wisconsin may only be a blip on the radar for Illinois, whose metrics have been largely unaffected over the past five days.

lllinois moved down just one spot from No. 4 to No. 5 in the NET rankings after Tuesday's loss to Wisconsin. Houston moved ahead of the Illini as a result of recent double-digit wins over No. 13 BYU and Utah. The top three of Michigan, Arizona and Duke remains unchanged.

The NET rankings also show that seeding takes more than just the win-loss record into account. Illinois is still at No. 5 with five losses, ahead of teams like Gonzaga, Iowa State, UConn, Purdue, Michigan State and Nebraska – among others – who have fewer losses.

Part of that is because metrics like KenPom suggest Illinois is elite in a few areas. The Illini are No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 15 in strength of schedule, bolstering their resume as KenPom's No. 6 team overall. If there's one thing to be concerned about, though, it's Illinois' No. 31 adjusted defensive efficiency – the worst of any team in KenPom's overall top 15.

What's next?

Jake Davis Illinois Basketball — Illinois Fighting Illini forward Jake Davis (15) shoots against the Wisconsin Badgers at State Farm Center. | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Illinois hosts Indiana (17-8, 8-6) at 11 p.m. CT on Sunday at the State Farm Center in Champaign. The Hoosiers are No. 31 in the NET rankings, so as things stand, it would be a Quad 2 win for Illinois. But if the Hoosiers win a few more games and move into the top 30, it could eventually become a Quad 1 win and boost Illinois' resume.

Following Sunday's game, Illinois travels to face USC (18-6, 7-6) on Wednesday and UCLA (17-7, 9-4) on Feb. 21, both of which would be Quad 1 wins on the road. If the Illini are able to win the next three, they may still have a shot at the Big Ten title when No. 2 Michigan (22-1, 12-1) comes to Champaign on Feb. 27.

Illinois is one of four teams – along with Nebraska, Purdue and Michigan State – that has three conference losses. So with a strong finish, it should be able to jump back up to the No. 2 seed line despite the recent setback.