Staff Picks: Who Wins Illinois vs UConn in the NCAA Tournament Final Four?

Brad Underwood has finally broken through, and Illinois is back in the Final Four for the first time since 2005, when it advanced to the national title game. Can the three-seeded Illini (28-8) follow that group's lead by knocking off two-seeded UConn (33-5) in a rematch of the Huskies' November regular-season win?

The Illini and Huskies will settle it Saturday (5:09 p.m. CT, TBS and TruTV) in the semifinals of the 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, where Michigan and Arizona will also square off to determine the other national title game participant.

How does our crack Illinois on SI staff predict which way Illinois-UConn will go after the dust settles? See our predictions below:

Jason Langendorf

As depressingly simple and random as it might sound after all the hubbub of another NCAA Tournament, this matchup is a coin flip. Either Illinois or UConn is capable of clipping the other's wings on any given Final Four Saturday, and what separates them – the Illini's size and the Huskies' beautiful basketball mind in coach Dan Hurley – is probably marginal at this stage. But because Illinois finally seems locked in and is back to its old domineering offensive rebounding ways, I figure those extra possessions wlil be the edge that decides it.

Prediction: Illinois 79, UConn 76

Made for the moment.

📆 April 4
🏆 NCAA Tournament Final Four
🆚 [2] UConn
⏰ 5:09 p.m. CT
📍 Indianapolis, IN
📺 TBS/TNT/TruTV pic.twitter.com/bmvhIHNslV
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) April 3, 2026

Steve Greenberg

Going by the metrics, the gap between these teams offensively (which favors the Illini) is bigger than the gap between them defensively (which favors the Huskies). KenPom also ranks the Illini higher overall: No. 4 compared with No. 9. Thanks, KenPom. We owe you a beer. Anyway, forget the metrics – the Illini just plain can beat the team that got down by 19 against Duke, the team that got blown out by St. John’s in the Big East championship game, the team that lost at lowly Marquette in the regular-season finale. Dan Hurley’s best team, this is not.

Prediction: Illinois 74, UConn 71

We'll see you at the Final Four! pic.twitter.com/HTUNJLF3VY
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) April 1, 2026

Jackson Langendorf

How UConn managed to survive against Duke is still baffling, but with center Tarris Reed Jr. operating at this level and Dan Hurley pulling the strings, anything is possible. Still, in this matchup with Illinois, the Huskies figure to be outmatched once more. The Illini are bigger, more physical and more skilled all around. And Illinois is finally playing defense – at an extremely high level, mind you. Expect the Illini to control this one, staving off a feisty Huskies unit that will stick around all night long.

Prediction: Illinois 75, UConn 71

Pranav Hegde

Dan Hurley is about the last coach any team wants to see on the other sideline in March. But Illinois has already seen UConn’s offense once, and that familiarity should help the Illini be more prepared for what's coming Saturday. Brad Underwood has to make the right adjustments, but there is reason to trust that Illinois will have a better plan this time around and do enough to punch its ticket to the national title game.

Prediction: Illinois 72, UConn 65

Jared Shlesky

UConn got the best of Illinois back in November at Madison Square Garden, but neither of these teams are who they were then. In fact, both are better, especially Illinois. But are the Illini, in this case, good enough? I don't think so. And for two reasons: 1) The Huskies have the experience and have been here before, and 2) they have enough length and athleticism to keep Keaton Wagler in check. Expect this game to be close, but I'm going with Hurley and his Huskies.

Prediction: UConn 77, Illinois 72

One goal. One standard. pic.twitter.com/Vhe19OqnuB
— UConn Men's Basketball (@UConnMBB) April 3, 2026

Jack Ankony

We’re in for an epic Final Four, as both games feel like true toss-ups. I give Illinois the advantage in the backcourt, favoring Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell over UConn’s inconsistent guard play. But UConn center Tarris Reed has been one of the best players all tournament, and his physicality could give Illinois’ big men some issues. So could Alex Karaban running off screens for 3-pointers. In the end, Illinois’ offensive rebounding gives them one extra look in the final minute to tip the scales.