3 Things to Watch When Illinois Faces UConn in NCAA Tournament Final Four

Illinois defeating Iowa in the Elite Eight was a breakthrough that coach Brad Underwood had pushed for over the past six seasons.

But he has also spoken of his belief in Illinois winning a national championship. So after all the emotions that came with the Illini reaching their first Final Four since 2005, it will be important to mentally reset and prepare for UConn, which has won two of the past three national championships.

The game is scheduled for Saturday at 5:09 p.m. CT (TBS, TNT, TruTV) at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, and the winner will face either No. 1 Michigan or No. 1 Arizona in Monday's national championship. Although Illinois' season will be deemed a success regardless of the weekend's results, the Illini aren't yet satisfied.

"I don't want anybody to think that this is it," Andrej Stojakovic said after Illinois defeated Iowa in the Elite Eight. "Like, we're not – we didn't get to the Final Four just to get there. We're coming to win two more games and we'll take it one game at a time."

Here are three things to watch as the Illini battle the Huskies:

1. Illinois handling Tarris Reed Jr.'s physicality

Tarris Reed UConn Basketball — UConn Huskies forward Tarris Reed Jr. (5) dunks against the Duke Blue Devils during the Elite Eight of the 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

UConn center Tarris Reed Jr. has been one of the NCAA Tournament's most dominant forces. His numbers aren't just inflated by a 31-point, 27-rebound performance against No. 15 seed Furman, either. He also put up 26 points and nine rebounds against No. 1 overall seed Duke, which has the potential national player of the year in Cam Boozer and a future NBA center in Patrick Ngongba II.

From a height standpoint, Illinois has the bodies to match up with 6-foot-11, 265-pound Reed. But can 7-foot-1 Tomislav Ivisic and 7-foot-2 Zvonimir Ivisic match the physicality while also defending without fouling against a bruiser like Reed? It's a difficult balance to strike and a matchup that seems to favor Reed this time around.

In the first matchup, it was Reed who got into foul trouble and finished with just two points and five rebounds. But the way he has been playing in the NCAA Tournament compared to the Ivisic brothers suggests the UConn senior center will be a much greater challenge in the rematch.

2. UConn's inconsistent three-point shooting

Alex Karaban UConn — UConn Huskies forward Alex Karaban (11) shoots over Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) during the Elite Eight of the 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

It's easy to forget Braylon Mullins' shooting woes after he drained what will live on as an iconic March Madness shot for eternity. Prior to the buzzer beater that knocked off No. 1 Duke, the 6-foot-6 freshman was 0-for-4 from three-point range and 3-for-9 from the field with four fouls.

Two-time national champion Alex Karaban hit a clutch three-pointer 50 seconds earlier, but he similarly started 0-for-5 from long range before helping save the Huskies' season. He finished with just five points on 2-for-10 shooting.

OH MY GOODNESS. BRAYLON MULLINS WITH .3 LEFT!!!

"MARCH MEANS DRAMA!!!"@UCONNMBB pic.twitter.com/ER2wWCg3Ds
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) March 29, 2026

If UConn is going to keep pace with a potent offense like Illinois', it must get better shooting performances from Karaban and Mullins, who both shot over 37 percent from beyond the arc in Big East play. Solo Ball is another three-point shooting factor from a volume standpoint, but he has been far less efficient all season, shooting 29.2 percent and going 0-for-5 against Duke.

UConn has proven to be a capable outside shooting team – it went 9-for-21 (42.9 percent) in the Sweet 16 versus Michigan State and has 10 games with 10-plus three-pointers made against high-major opponents – but the Huskies' inconsistency leaves some uncertainty.

3. Keaton Wagler proving he's the game's best player

Keaton Wagler Illinois Basketball — Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) dribbles against Iowa Hawkeyes guard Kael Combs (11) during the Elite Eight of the 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

There's no debating Keaton Wagler has been the best player between the Illinois and UConn rosters all season. He will be the only All-American to take the floor, as well as the leading scorer (17.9 points per game) and the highest-projected NBA Draft pick.

But if he doesn't back up those accomplishments and lead Illinois to victory, UConn will have the last and most important laugh. No pressure on the freshman.

That doesn't necessarily mean Wagler has to lead Illinois in scoring like he did with 25 points against Iowa. A 13-point, 12-rebound, one-turnover game against Houston worked just fine, too.

Illinois freshman Keaton Wagler just went off for 25 in the Elite 8 to lead the Illini back to the Final Four for the first time since 2005 🔥 pic.twitter.com/TLPMvvd9Qp
— B/R Hoops (@brhoops) March 29, 2026

Underwood has praised Wagler for his composure, control and decision-making all season, and those traits need to be on display Saturday. That could be seen through his passing in pick-and-roll situations, how he handles UConn's differing defensive coverage or how well he shoots in a pressure-packed environment like the Final Four.

Wagler has proven game in and game out that he's capable of these types of performances, and now it's time to show it on the biggest stage. As the saying goes, big-time players make big-time plays in big-time games. This is Wagler's time.